The Seeds Of Hope....and Despair

afternoon roaders.

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hope you like the new site and layout. comments as always welcome.


this post I am going to focus on the bottom half of the table and look at the teams who are at the moment propping up the table and who are the likely candidates to go down this season. And right now, it is quite fascinating....


VILLA:

Having started the season the worst of all twenty EPL teams - certainly aesthetically - Aston Villa fans must have felt so out of place, it would have been akin to turning up dressed as Robin at an all-Batman convention. The opening two games produced two defeats to West Ham 1 nil at the Boleyn Ground - albeit tight - but a more worrying 3 1 defeat to a powerful and confident Everton side. But perhaps the worries were unfounded. Certainly against a tough and dominant Newcastle side at St James' Park, they played far far better than in their previous two games and at times deserved to win the game. Nonetheless a point on Tyneside is nothing to be sniffed at.

In hindsight we shouldnt be surprised at the Villains curious and at times baffling start to the season. 4 points from 12 is nothing to shout about certainly, but this a Paul Lambert side we are talking about. Last season, when he was managing Norwich City in their return to the top flight, Norwich garnered only 2 points from 12 from the opening 4 games. They then went on a two record two wins in a row and after that - aside from a close defeat to Man Utd at Old Trafford - the next loss was against Aston Villa in November. Norwich went on to finish twelfth. Paul Lambert is clearly a manager who knows what he is doing, its just takes a while for his sides to get into their stride and considering he only took charge during the summer, there is much room for optimism.

In stark contrast to the opening two games Villa began to pass the ball around nicely and whilst they may not have the most Hollywood of squads they can indeed gel well. Last season at times Ciaran Clark produced some superb form and as he was deployed for the most part in central midfield, by the then Villa manager, Gerard Houllier before his untimely health scare. He was allowed freedom to express himself on the ball notching up 3 goals including a double versus Arsenal and one against Chelsea. Under Lambert, Clark has been deployed in both midfield and also in defence, scoring one last against Newcastle in their 1 1 draw.

Clark links up superbly with the enigma that is Steven Ireland and their new Aussie attacking midfielder, Brett Holman. Christian Benteke who signed on deadline day also has opened up his account with a confident finish late in the game last weekend to confirm the 3 points for Villa. Then they still have the out of sorts Darren Bent and the injury nagged Gabby Agbonlahor. They have the tools.

Lambert has proven he has the nouse for the Premier League. If Aston Villa continue to progress as a team, they should have no problems in surviving.


91ST PREDICTION: MID TABLE


SOUTHAMPTON:

At this stage I am concerned for the Saints. True they have played both Manchester clubs, one home, one away and Arsenal away, but they have also lost to Wigan at St Marys'. hmmmm....its a tricky one. The cold hard facts are they have conceded 14 goals in 4 games are rock bottom with no points and goal difference of minus 9. They have scored 2 against both Manchester clubs, but the only other goal has come on the back of a 6 1 annihilation by the Gunners last weekend. For me, I don't think they have a problem in scoring goals. From what I have seen, their achilles heel lies in their inability to keep the ball in the first 3rd of the pitch; it certainly led to United snatching all three points from a seemingly strong position at 2 1 up.

Up top the Saints have a very potent combination in Adam Lallana and Rickie Lambert; the two chief reasons they are in the PL in the first case. Guly do Prado is also present but questions will now be asked of him after his drink drive charge. Elsewhere the goal threats are likely to come from £13m Gaston Ramirez from Bologna, which was something of a coup for the club, and the fledging James Ward-Prowse and veteran Jason Puncheon. As we have seen in the past, teams dont need big names, they just need players to gel.


The defence is my area of concern. Hooiveld, Fonte, Fox and Clyne, as a back line, do not fill me with optimism. Danny Fox, formerly of Burnley, so with PL experience is more of a attacking outlet. Nathaniel Clyne is quick but as any Palace fan will atest, he is no top-drawer defender. Too often already this campaign, the wide areas for Southampton have been barren landscapes, not dissimilar to the Kalahari desert (indeed the defence may have been backpacking over there). These gaps need to be plugged. Hooiveld has the aerial presence to trouble defenders at set pieces, but Jose Fonte - though relatively stocky - is too lightweight in his current form.

Southampton are a side I will look forward to seeing play, especially at home. there passing and movement is fluid and they are a exciting team to watch. However at the moment, against more experienced players and teams, they may have real problems in preventing goals from leaking. This could change. But...


91ST PREDICTION: RELEGATION


READING:


This is a tough call. Having only played 3 games due to their game at Sunderland being postponed, it is hard to say much about the Royals, without it being knee-jerk. They have one more point than the Saints, having played Chelsea away, drawing with Stoke and losing 3 1 to Spurs on Sunday. The showing against Chelsea was impressive though. Conceding an early Frank Lampard penalty, Reading responded with a powerful Pogrebnyak header and a sumptuous Danny Guthrie free kick to take the lead at the European champions. Yes, they went on to lose 4 2, but for 20 mins, they had the Blues in real strife.



Reading's squad has a real mix of the old and new about it. Veterans Jason Roberts and the evergreen Ian Harte continue to add to their PL appearances stats. Its likely the goals will come from £5m Fulham signing, Pavel Pogrebnyak, who scored 6 goals for the Cottagers, including a home debut hat-trick and has shown he has the potential to be prolific. Elsewhere, the goal threat is likely to come with the experienced Danny Guthrie, who has the ability to put the ball on a dime from set pieces and Adam Le Fondre who remains a real threat from the bench.

At the back Alex Pearce and Kaspars Gorkss have combined into a good unit - certainly in the Championship - and could be a good duo for the more physical sides as Stoke and Wigan. The aforementioned Ian Harte, now 35, remains the stalwart left back for the Berkshire side and whose experience cannot be argued. However, at times he can be found wanting be pacy wingers, as Gareth Bale and Eden Hazard have exhibited.


For me, the key ingredient of the Reading side will be Garath McCleary. Signed from Nottm Forest in the summer, he is the lynchpin of much of Reading's play. Only 25, McClearys crossing ability is there for all to see and his final ball is very good. with such a tall figure as Pogrebnyak as the target man, Reading could get much joy from his industry. Expect this man to get quite a few assists this seasons.

Tough season ahead for Reading but in Brian McDermott they have a guy who is able to compete


91ST PREDICTION: 16,17th





QPR:

So having thrown money at almost anything that moved in the last month of the transfer window, millionaire owner Tony Fernandes has assured that the West-Londoners wont see a repeat of their last day relegation scrap. Right? Well potentially not Mark Hughes has proved to be a manager that - currently - cannot handle the egos associated with multi-millionaires and the wealth that they bring to the table. Much like happened to him at Man City that saw him sacked. But further than that the players he has under his wing, don't seem to gel particularly well. 


QPR have brought in, Stephane Mbia from Marseille who is a good midfielder and will hold the ball well aswell as deflecting it. Ryan Nelsen from Spurs, is the main defensive signing. But although he does score from set pieces regularly, his defensive ability has began to creak like a old vauxhall; reliable but whose oil needs changing weekly. They brought Andy Johnson in from Fulham after his contract expired but he is now out of the picture having picked up an injury against Chelsea at the weekend. But in Zamora, Cisse and Mackie they have goals. But how many?




More importantly can they keep the goals out? In Julio Cesar, they have former Brazilian number 1 between the sticks; Cesar is a great shot stopper and is a intimidating presence. More often than not, he will be the difference between a point and not. those points could be crucial.

The big factors for QPR will be in their other two major signings, Junior Hoilett and Esteban Granero. Hoilett was a revelation at a sinking ship in Blackburn Rovers. He is pacy and dynamic and arguably the most skillful canadian to ever grace these shores. Hoilett will be given free reign over the midfield and will create all sorts of openings. In the first two games he was deployed as such but after disappointing displays he was dropped for the next two. Where he features now, time will tell.

Granero signed from Madrid on transfer deadline day for £5m. Having been on the books in the Spanish capital for 5 years, having had a loan spell at Getafe (folllowed by a full year there) he returned to the Bernabeu but failed to hold down a place. No surprise there. There is also no doubt about his obvious talent and QPR could well have got themselves a bargain.





91ST PREDICTION:  18th and RELEGATION


LIVERPOOL:

Surely not?.....well lets be honest. Currently there are very few teams with worse cohesion and team work than Liverpool. we shall see.


If I was a fan, I'd be worried....


Those are the four I have focused on and we are four down, thirty four to go. Much can change. but it will likely between these teams


Southampton
Reading
Qpr
Norwich
Villa

more to come on this throughout the season.