Liverpool teetering...

afternoon roaders!

nothing 3 weeks, then 2 come along in five days. That's better than the transport service in my home village.....

The weekend saw the red half of Liverpool lose their third game in 5 matches. Liverpool have the grand total of 2 points out of 15. Its horrendous. What's worse they are currently perched on the precipiece of the abyss (The Championship) and only Reading and Southampton are lower than they. Pepe Reina has seen his net bulge ten times already this season and have only scored four in response. Lets take a look at their results:

WEST BROM 3-0 LIVERPOOL

LIVERPOOL 2-2 MAN CITY

LIVERPOOL 0-2 ARSENAL

SUNDERLAND 1-1 LIVERPOOL

LIVERPOOL 1-2 MAN UTD

Now looking at these results you wouldn't say that was a nightmare scenario. They played superbly against Man City at Anfield, only for Skrtel to single-handedly present Carlos Tevez with a late goal gift wrapped, that denied Liverpool the three points, which would have been completely merited. They were dominated by Arsenal's midfield though and although they were the better side against Man United on sunday, they still, nonetheless, lost. 

If we look further ahead, that means that having played both Manchester clubs and Arsenal at home, they will have to play all three of those later on this season, away. The only sight worse than Liverpool's current league position, will be to look at the away record. In short, it is horrific.

Liverpool's malaise, one could argue, is as a direct consequence of King Kenny's frivolous and exhuberant spending on frankly average players. (Downing, 20m, Suarez, 24m, Jose Enrique, 7m). Yes, Carroll is a good player, but at Liverpool, it is simply an improbability, given the players he has in support of him, or rather the lack thereof. But then again, it is not like they haven't spent quite a bit of money over the summer. Joe Allen was bought for a extortionate price tag of 15m from Swansea. Allen is a good player but no player  from the Welsh side, bar possibly Aaron Ramsey and Gareth Bale, is worth even 10m.    

Liverpool's main strike signing is Fabio Borini. signed from Roma for 10.5m (what!). Considering Roma signed him from Chelsea for 7m euros - aside from the fact he is now an international for Italy (albeit a bench warmer)- this some pretty shoddy business, for a guy who was a flop at Stamford Bridge and Swansea. He is quick and seems skillful enough, but no more than a Sterling or a Suso - sitting in the Liverpool talent pool already - and who for my money, are better than Borini. It really is Extraordinary. 

Liverpool are crying out for a striker. Luiz Suarez is a fantastically gifted player. Not just at diving though, but he is so so profligate,that it frequently comes back to haunt The Reds. If only he converted half the chances that he made Liverpool would perhaps, be in the polar opposite league position of third from top and not bottom. That makes the Borini signing even more staggering. They needed a clinical striker. 

Clint Dempsey would not necessarily have been that, but Liverpool would have bought a goalscorer with one of the best conversions rates IN THE PREMIER LEAGUE in recent years. But they missed out him. How I am still perplexed. On deadline day, Villa came in with a £7m bid, which was accepted by Fulham, but understandably, Dempsey was more than reluctant to join, as he was seemingly destined for Liverpool. Every man and his dog expected a bid from Liverpool; and it came but at only £3m, 

Hold on a minute. Haven't Liverpool got a billionaire owner who owns the Fenway Sports Group, who owns the Boston Red Sox? No?......Surely hes got £7m in his 'Purse' alone?.....So instead, Tottenham come in with an offer of £5m pounds and that is accepted at 10pm. REALLY?...

It seems that Liverpool have less money than JJB Sports. But it is symptomatic of the poor recent history of Liverpool FC's, not just transfer policy, but business as a whole.

So how bad is their position exactly? Liverpool's next six fixtures are thus: 

Norwich away

Stoke home

Reading home

Everton away

Newcastle home

Chelsea away

It is quite conceivable, that Liverpool lose to Norwich, Everton, and Chelsea, the away games. However Stoke have proved to be a thorn in the side to many teams. Reading are the sort of team that would frustrate them. Newcastle have oodles of goal potential and defend well. If Liverpool got 9 points from these results it would be a total result. But I have my doubts they would even win one. Reading is almost a guarantee surely.

I think now, the biggest concern would be with the news that Daniel Agger could miss a large chunk of the season. Liverpool are a good defensive unit with Agger. He is a constant threat when in the oppositions half. But without him they are pretty horrible. Skrtel has a great understanding with him. With Martin Kelly out for the season with cruciate ligament damage also, Liverpool are in a potentially very serious situation. But could they go down?

Surely Not.

One of two things will happen; Brendan Rogers will be sacked; Liverpool will drop to the Championship. If this happens, (unthinkable I know) John Henry will take his ball and leave. Liverpool will be left with a mountainous pile of debt and with their sponsors, Standard Chartered in a precarious financial position, Liverpool could become the next Leeds United. 

Quite a thought...that.....   

    

The Seeds Of Hope....and Despair

afternoon roaders.

you can follow me on twitter: @the91stneil


hope you like the new site and layout. comments as always welcome.


this post I am going to focus on the bottom half of the table and look at the teams who are at the moment propping up the table and who are the likely candidates to go down this season. And right now, it is quite fascinating....


VILLA:

Having started the season the worst of all twenty EPL teams - certainly aesthetically - Aston Villa fans must have felt so out of place, it would have been akin to turning up dressed as Robin at an all-Batman convention. The opening two games produced two defeats to West Ham 1 nil at the Boleyn Ground - albeit tight - but a more worrying 3 1 defeat to a powerful and confident Everton side. But perhaps the worries were unfounded. Certainly against a tough and dominant Newcastle side at St James' Park, they played far far better than in their previous two games and at times deserved to win the game. Nonetheless a point on Tyneside is nothing to be sniffed at.

In hindsight we shouldnt be surprised at the Villains curious and at times baffling start to the season. 4 points from 12 is nothing to shout about certainly, but this a Paul Lambert side we are talking about. Last season, when he was managing Norwich City in their return to the top flight, Norwich garnered only 2 points from 12 from the opening 4 games. They then went on a two record two wins in a row and after that - aside from a close defeat to Man Utd at Old Trafford - the next loss was against Aston Villa in November. Norwich went on to finish twelfth. Paul Lambert is clearly a manager who knows what he is doing, its just takes a while for his sides to get into their stride and considering he only took charge during the summer, there is much room for optimism.

In stark contrast to the opening two games Villa began to pass the ball around nicely and whilst they may not have the most Hollywood of squads they can indeed gel well. Last season at times Ciaran Clark produced some superb form and as he was deployed for the most part in central midfield, by the then Villa manager, Gerard Houllier before his untimely health scare. He was allowed freedom to express himself on the ball notching up 3 goals including a double versus Arsenal and one against Chelsea. Under Lambert, Clark has been deployed in both midfield and also in defence, scoring one last against Newcastle in their 1 1 draw.

Clark links up superbly with the enigma that is Steven Ireland and their new Aussie attacking midfielder, Brett Holman. Christian Benteke who signed on deadline day also has opened up his account with a confident finish late in the game last weekend to confirm the 3 points for Villa. Then they still have the out of sorts Darren Bent and the injury nagged Gabby Agbonlahor. They have the tools.

Lambert has proven he has the nouse for the Premier League. If Aston Villa continue to progress as a team, they should have no problems in surviving.


91ST PREDICTION: MID TABLE


SOUTHAMPTON:

At this stage I am concerned for the Saints. True they have played both Manchester clubs, one home, one away and Arsenal away, but they have also lost to Wigan at St Marys'. hmmmm....its a tricky one. The cold hard facts are they have conceded 14 goals in 4 games are rock bottom with no points and goal difference of minus 9. They have scored 2 against both Manchester clubs, but the only other goal has come on the back of a 6 1 annihilation by the Gunners last weekend. For me, I don't think they have a problem in scoring goals. From what I have seen, their achilles heel lies in their inability to keep the ball in the first 3rd of the pitch; it certainly led to United snatching all three points from a seemingly strong position at 2 1 up.

Up top the Saints have a very potent combination in Adam Lallana and Rickie Lambert; the two chief reasons they are in the PL in the first case. Guly do Prado is also present but questions will now be asked of him after his drink drive charge. Elsewhere the goal threats are likely to come from £13m Gaston Ramirez from Bologna, which was something of a coup for the club, and the fledging James Ward-Prowse and veteran Jason Puncheon. As we have seen in the past, teams dont need big names, they just need players to gel.


The defence is my area of concern. Hooiveld, Fonte, Fox and Clyne, as a back line, do not fill me with optimism. Danny Fox, formerly of Burnley, so with PL experience is more of a attacking outlet. Nathaniel Clyne is quick but as any Palace fan will atest, he is no top-drawer defender. Too often already this campaign, the wide areas for Southampton have been barren landscapes, not dissimilar to the Kalahari desert (indeed the defence may have been backpacking over there). These gaps need to be plugged. Hooiveld has the aerial presence to trouble defenders at set pieces, but Jose Fonte - though relatively stocky - is too lightweight in his current form.

Southampton are a side I will look forward to seeing play, especially at home. there passing and movement is fluid and they are a exciting team to watch. However at the moment, against more experienced players and teams, they may have real problems in preventing goals from leaking. This could change. But...


91ST PREDICTION: RELEGATION


READING:


This is a tough call. Having only played 3 games due to their game at Sunderland being postponed, it is hard to say much about the Royals, without it being knee-jerk. They have one more point than the Saints, having played Chelsea away, drawing with Stoke and losing 3 1 to Spurs on Sunday. The showing against Chelsea was impressive though. Conceding an early Frank Lampard penalty, Reading responded with a powerful Pogrebnyak header and a sumptuous Danny Guthrie free kick to take the lead at the European champions. Yes, they went on to lose 4 2, but for 20 mins, they had the Blues in real strife.



Reading's squad has a real mix of the old and new about it. Veterans Jason Roberts and the evergreen Ian Harte continue to add to their PL appearances stats. Its likely the goals will come from £5m Fulham signing, Pavel Pogrebnyak, who scored 6 goals for the Cottagers, including a home debut hat-trick and has shown he has the potential to be prolific. Elsewhere, the goal threat is likely to come with the experienced Danny Guthrie, who has the ability to put the ball on a dime from set pieces and Adam Le Fondre who remains a real threat from the bench.

At the back Alex Pearce and Kaspars Gorkss have combined into a good unit - certainly in the Championship - and could be a good duo for the more physical sides as Stoke and Wigan. The aforementioned Ian Harte, now 35, remains the stalwart left back for the Berkshire side and whose experience cannot be argued. However, at times he can be found wanting be pacy wingers, as Gareth Bale and Eden Hazard have exhibited.


For me, the key ingredient of the Reading side will be Garath McCleary. Signed from Nottm Forest in the summer, he is the lynchpin of much of Reading's play. Only 25, McClearys crossing ability is there for all to see and his final ball is very good. with such a tall figure as Pogrebnyak as the target man, Reading could get much joy from his industry. Expect this man to get quite a few assists this seasons.

Tough season ahead for Reading but in Brian McDermott they have a guy who is able to compete


91ST PREDICTION: 16,17th





QPR:

So having thrown money at almost anything that moved in the last month of the transfer window, millionaire owner Tony Fernandes has assured that the West-Londoners wont see a repeat of their last day relegation scrap. Right? Well potentially not Mark Hughes has proved to be a manager that - currently - cannot handle the egos associated with multi-millionaires and the wealth that they bring to the table. Much like happened to him at Man City that saw him sacked. But further than that the players he has under his wing, don't seem to gel particularly well. 


QPR have brought in, Stephane Mbia from Marseille who is a good midfielder and will hold the ball well aswell as deflecting it. Ryan Nelsen from Spurs, is the main defensive signing. But although he does score from set pieces regularly, his defensive ability has began to creak like a old vauxhall; reliable but whose oil needs changing weekly. They brought Andy Johnson in from Fulham after his contract expired but he is now out of the picture having picked up an injury against Chelsea at the weekend. But in Zamora, Cisse and Mackie they have goals. But how many?




More importantly can they keep the goals out? In Julio Cesar, they have former Brazilian number 1 between the sticks; Cesar is a great shot stopper and is a intimidating presence. More often than not, he will be the difference between a point and not. those points could be crucial.

The big factors for QPR will be in their other two major signings, Junior Hoilett and Esteban Granero. Hoilett was a revelation at a sinking ship in Blackburn Rovers. He is pacy and dynamic and arguably the most skillful canadian to ever grace these shores. Hoilett will be given free reign over the midfield and will create all sorts of openings. In the first two games he was deployed as such but after disappointing displays he was dropped for the next two. Where he features now, time will tell.

Granero signed from Madrid on transfer deadline day for £5m. Having been on the books in the Spanish capital for 5 years, having had a loan spell at Getafe (folllowed by a full year there) he returned to the Bernabeu but failed to hold down a place. No surprise there. There is also no doubt about his obvious talent and QPR could well have got themselves a bargain.





91ST PREDICTION:  18th and RELEGATION


LIVERPOOL:

Surely not?.....well lets be honest. Currently there are very few teams with worse cohesion and team work than Liverpool. we shall see.


If I was a fan, I'd be worried....


Those are the four I have focused on and we are four down, thirty four to go. Much can change. but it will likely between these teams


Southampton
Reading
Qpr
Norwich
Villa

more to come on this throughout the season.

Wengers Transfer Policy.....Diabys Returns

Greetings, roaders!


The Summer was busier than expected so I had (reluctantly) decided to put the blog on hiatus.

BUT

The return of our beloved Premier League has swung yours truly back into action once again. Huzzah

After 3 matchdays, now we are well back into the swing of things, only for the pesky international break to interfere. gah! oh well, we can but hope that break applies to a certain Dutchman whilst on duty for Holland.

no malice of forethought of course. alas......


The transfer window slammed shut on Friday night and certain clubs that should have been desperate to add to their ranks were conspicuous by their absence. Notably Arsenal and Liverpool. We shall focus on the latter later.

Arsenal have had one of their most successful - at least on paper - summer windows in recent memory. Having already snared Lu-lu-lu-Lukas Podolski before the season finished, Wenger swooped for Giroud and Santi Cazorla. Cazorla, might I add for an absolute pittance. Malaga's loss was hugely Arsenal's gain and for just £11.9m also, due to the fire sale taking place in both southern Spain and a certain Kuwaiti billionaires mansion. (perhaps literally) . Arsene you say? ;)


However after then selling a certain dutchman, who shall not be named, (ever again) and the rather overrated Song, combined with missing out after Nuri Sahin, following Arsenal's unwillingness to be held to ransom by Jose and co. (rightly so in my mind), the consensus was that the Gunners were a man or two light. Cue transfer window deadline day; much expected, but as usual much disappointment. There were rumblings of a loan deal for Chelsea's Michael Essien, but Di Matteo, rather wisely would not allow it.


So 11pm struck and no deals. Oh.

I, as an impressionable young man, started to panic; How could we not replace one of our starting 11? make that two of said 11. I was raging, albeit quietly. Arsenal still have a pleasantly strong squad, now that elements of the deadwood are disappearing, however I felt that we were still too light in the centre of midfield ; Ramsey is too easily bossed off the ball and is prone to sloppyness, certainly at the moment; Wilshere is a while away from full match fitness, Eastmond is crap, Frimpong is out, as is Rosicky and Diaby is well injury prone TO SAY THE LEAST. Other options are to play the Ox or Coquelin centrally, but both are still learning.


Prior to the window closing he had said he will bring in one or two quality players. But as the windows began to ease shut, that statement began to look hazy, at best.

On the eve of Aug 30, Wenger was heard to say;

“We are active but we don’t want to bring average players in. I am relaxed…if we find a top, top, top player we will do it. We are working hard.”

This is what I have an issue with. Who is a top, top quality player?

* Eden Hazard? 32m. 6 assists and 1 goal in his first three games for Chelsea.
* A certain dutchman.
* Radamel Falcao who is prolific for Atletico Madrid, but who has a £50m buy-out clause.


just a few there, but the top, top players will cost an absolute bomb and chances are you will only be able to have one of these 'toys' if your owner happens to be a Russian or Qatari gazillionaire. Arsenal have Stan Kronke. Yes........


But thats not really my issue with Wenger's statement. You don't necessarily need 'top,top' players. Teams just need a certain jeu-ne-sei-quoi to add to the mix. Take for example, Tottenham. Perennial door-knockers to the top 4 places, but unable to break into the top 3 or even challenge for the title. last summer, 'Arry added Scott Parker to their ranks on Deadlne day. Parker is not a world class player, nor top, top. He is however a very good player, and works like a trojan. He is like the christmas present that keeps giving.



When Parker was installed into Spurs' midfield, everything seemed to click; Adebayor, Bale, Modric, Walker. He only added a small amount but that amount was the final ingredient, that for the majority of last season made the Lily Whites real title contenders. To the point I was scared. Of course I take no joy in the fact that the wheels on the Spurs bus fell off, but the point remains that that 5'7 of Scotty Parker made Spurs a force. There are plenty more examples out there.

So it has been a lovely surprise that one Abou Vassiriki Diaby, has started the season much like Tomas Rosicky did last season. bouncing about, passing like a maestro and generally dominating the oppositions midfield. There are currently no signs of his injury problems that have plagued him so often of late.

Yet......

At times yesterday, there were glimpses of Patrick Vieira, as we all know that Diaby could be and more. Jack Wilshere's timeline for recovery is unclear. He is due back in a month but there are bound to be setbacks. All long-term injury sufferers after a year out hit a wall. Especially Arsenal players. So it is more key than ever that Diaby stays as fit as possible. Already for me, he should be used in league games only. He should be wrapped in cotton wool. There is no doubt in my mind that if Diaby stays fit, the absence of Alex Song will not be felt and Arsenal will be a force.

      

euro 2012 preview

greetings roaders.

On the eve of the beginning of the most anticipated major footballing tournament since, well, World Cup 2010, It is time to post my thoughts, predictions and a look at the favourites, but also some of the dark horses to lift the trophy in Kiev on July 1st

The Favourites:

SPAIN

We have to begin really with the holders and many people's pick, Spain. All the household favourites will in attendance; Xavi, Iniesta, Alonso, Ramos, Casillas et al. Absent however will be the spaniards relentless captain, Carles Puyol and prolific major tournament goalscorer David Villa. 

There will be some new faces along for the ride; Athletic Bilbaos defensive mid Javi Martinez will be expected to fill the collossal boots of Puyol and if he's not he could be deployed next to Xabi Alonso in a holding role. In attack will be Chelsea's versatile winger and playmaker Juan Mata, though it is doubtful he will squeeze himself into a starting berth, such is the talent at Spain's disposal. Throw David Silva into the mix also.

Another of Bilbao's players and perhaps the biggest key to Spain's hopes is Fernando Llorente. In toutnaments past, the holders have always had a prolific marksmen (Villa, Torres). Having had a sensational season in Spain, as both scorer and provider this could be his tournament and is my pick for golden boot. More on that in a minute.

A lot of pundits have opted for Spain as champions. Not for me. Yes, I can see them scoring quite a few goals - with a front line of Torres/Llorente, Mata/Silva, Fabregas/Pedro, who couldn't - but for me they are not a defensive stronghold. They are without Puyol as previously mentioned, but Pique has been in poor form and I think Iker Casillas is now a weak point; He is not as good as he was. As Chelsea have proved, and more so the Swiss in the last world cup, if plan A doesn't work, there is no plan B and then they are eminently beatable.

GERMANY

Like Spain, the Germans have a plethora of attacking options; Up top they have Bayern Munich's goal machine Mario Gomez, Arsenal's new recruit Lukas Podolski and former golden boot winner Miroslav Klose (both Poldi and Miro wil be in there native Poland for all their group games). Then they have the dynamic Mario Gotze, Toni Kroos, Real Madrid's Mesut Ozil, the prodigal Marco Reus (21) of Monchengladbach and Thomas Muller playing in behind them; All young, all burgeoning talent. Bastian Schweinsteiger and Sami Khedira provide the back up through the midfield.

Germanys key area will be in defence. Here they are more than capable; Germanys biggest, most powerful and above all, best, defender Mat Hummels will be partnered likely by either German defensive stalwart Per Mertesacker or Holger Badstuber. Versatile full back Philipp Lahm will either be deployed at left or right back (most likely left) with Borussia Dortmunds' double Bundesliga champion Marcel Schmelzer at right back, or possibly Jerome Boateng.

Germanys matchwinner could take the form of 6'5 Manuel Neuer. This guy is huge. he doesn't immediately look it, but in person he a giant. He has certainly bulked up in recent years. Neuer's penalty record is superb; It should be he. is an intimidating figure between the sticks. But he is also incredibly agile for a big goalkeeper. 

Prior to Bayern Munichs Champions League final defeat, I had Germany as pretty hot favourites. But Chelsea's shock victory has laid doubts in my mind. They will go far, however.

HOLLAND

Few can argue the Dutch merit and pedigree of Bert van Marwijk's side coming into this tournament; They have Europe's two hottest strikers in Van Persie of Arsenal and Klaas Jan Huntelaar of Schalke 04; A devilishly attacking midfield of Sneijder, Robben, Afellay and Van der Vaart.

Runners up to Spain in South Africa, The Dutch have gone from strength to strength and scored 37 and conceded only 8, notching up an 11-0 win over San Marino in qualifying from Group E. 

The impressive Marten Stekelenberg will be between the sticks for Oranje, with Gregory Van der Wiel at right back. If there is a weak link it is in the defence. The Dutch lack height. Joris Mathijsen is 6'1 and is not getting any younger and Ron Vlaar is inexperienced in tournament football. Everton's Johnny Heitinga will back the defence up with his usual steely presence.

Holland haven't won a major trophy - despite coming close on several occasions - since Marco van Basten's 1988 side. With goals aplenty in the side, could this be the team to bring glory back to the low countries? In my opinion....Yes. If they don't they will come very close.

The Dark Horses:

FRANCE

Since France's 1998 and 2000 glorious reign as World and European Champions under Jacques Santini, the French have fallen flat, in no small part to the tyrannical reign of Raymond Domenech. The squad under the tutelage of Laurent Blanc, as it is now, is young, raw and still not without problems. But make no mistake, this team is POTENTIALLY very dangerous.

The French front 3 will consist of Giroud, Benzema and Menez, all extremely capable of goals. We then have the young Yann M'Vila who Arsenal have been strongly linked with. Likely next to him will be the ever improving Cabaye. Then in the wide roles we are likely to have Franck Ribery and Lesri who will cause worry to many defences. Elsewhere, Matthieu Valbuena will likely provide an option of the bench, together with Florent Malouda. 

The French defence consists of veteran Philippe Mexes, Rami of Valencia and Laurent Koscielny. Evra and Clichy will vie for role of left back with Matthieu Debuchy at right back.

Like the Dutch France have the ability to score goals. Benzema has had a fantastic season in Spain now he has settled in at Real. Ribery will be the dynamic playmaker we expect. Mexes has now been in football for over a decade and for me he is not as secure as say a Marcel Desailly or Lillian Thuram. If Clichy is utilised at left back he will trouble defences with his pace but his defensive abilities leave a lot to be desired. The French in this tournament? Jurys out..Much will depend on the England game...

RUSSIA

Russia come into the Euros under the guidance of Dick Advocaat, who has transformed them into a very potent team. Not so much in defence, but going forward. Russia's big players are arguably all very similar, in attacking mid/striker roles.

Firstly there is Arsenal's enigma that is Andrey Arshavin. Indiferrent for the Gunners playing in a wide role - where frankly, he doesn't seem interested - he went on loan back to Zenit and has adopted a more central role and unsurprisingly has found more joy and freedom. The fact of Arsenal is irrelevant; Whenever he
plays for Russia, he looks very good.



With him will be the precocious Alan Dzagoev of CSKA. Classic Russian player; small, pacy, excellent on the ball. It will be interesting to see how he gets on. Elswehere is Yuri Zhirkov, who will get forward on numerous occasions. Strikers Pavlyuchencko and Alexander Kerzakhov blow hot and cold but can be deadly. 

Russia's hope will depend on them being not given a chance by pundits and this is where they are a real threat. They will get through the group, then anything is possible.

POLAND

The Poles haven't often been a threat in major competitions since the early 90's. This Poland side has more than a few big players. Being on home soil, this could be the perfect opportunity for Poland to show what they are made of. 

Much of the Polish threat will come from the Dortmund trio of Lukas Piszcek, Jakob Blaszocowski and the In form Robert Lewandowski. Kuba (Blasz) as he is dubbed by the Westfelanstadion faithful, is a great little playmaker. Piszcek, is a particularly attacking full back and will get forward. Lewandowski comes into the Euros on the back of being named Bundesliga player of the season, having scored 22 goals and notching 6 assists.

I saw him last season and he was poor. Behind the play and slightly clumsy. In just one season, he has become a revelation. He is a huge aerial presence and has a strong right foot. He is being linked with a big move after the tournament and an impressive showing will improve chances of that happening. I fancy him to be one of, if not the main marksman of the competition. IF Poland get out of the group

which I think, with Russia, they will....

ENGLAND

England's build-up to the tournament has been plagued by injury after injury. It is a huge shame. They will be without Wilshere, Cleverley, Cahill, Barry, Walker. Particularly in the cases of Wilshere, Cahill and Walker it is a huge shame. With those three added to Englands squad, they would be extremely well set. As it is, not a huge amount is expected of the Three Lions.

Much will depend on the opening group game of France, but I feel England still have more than enough to get them far. Roy Hodgson is adept at getting the best out of his players but from the get go it is not like England have poor players. Terry and Lescott are both extremely capable defenders and moreso have a real aerial presence in opposition penalty areas. Johnson isnt great but can attack and will attack. Ashley Cole or Leighton Baines are both excellent outlets at left back.

The midfield of Parker and Gerrard if fit, will compliment each other beautifully. It is then case of who to play on the wings. Walcott? Milner? Ox? I think Milner will start against the French and when they tire, Roy will utilise Theo to break them down on the counter attack. Chamberlain could be a revelation. He COULD be the Owen of France 98'. 

The big question is who do England play up front. Young will operate likely in a wide attacking role, behind the striker. With Rooney suspended until Ukraine, it is a perfect opportunity for Andy Carroll or Danny Welbeck to show what they made of. As I've said before, Andy Carroll will be the X Factor for England; defences will not be able to cope with his movement and his unpredictability.

England will be tough to beat. If they can get goals here and there, they could go far.

Elsewhere, if Ireland can get it together, they could make the Quarters. I don't fancy Italy AT ALL. they have demons and skeletons in there closets. But well Italy, are Italy. Ukraine, Croatia, The Czechs (No goal threat, aging keeper) Sweden (though they will go close), Portugal and Denmark will probably just make up the numbers.

But this is the Euros, and its wide open in my opinion...

PREDICTIONS:

Final 8:    SPAIN HOLLAND GERMANY RUSSIA FRANCE ENGLAND POLAND IRELAND

Final 4:    SPAIN ENGLAND HOLLAND GERMANY

Final:       HOLLAND GERMANY

HOLLAND EUROPEAN CHAMPIONS.

WE SHALL SEE...

enjoy the opening matches. Back next week....

The French Market...

afternoon roaders.

ola! even as I returned from my iberian adventures, bringing with it glorious weather. it was worth the turbulence...


I want to focus this week on the formerly derided, untapped market, of French football. Previously, if a manager had scouted and subsequently bought from lesser french clubs, he would have been lambasted. But in the past few years with the transfer market as it is, with hugely inflated fees and players wages, scouts have increasingly used the near continent as their talent pool; and what a pool it is turning out to be. Now when a french based player is touted within the media as being destined for his/her club its not a case of 'OH NO' nor 'OH YES' but more OH....OK INTERESTING. This is frankly nothing short of meteoric departure from how things were.

taking a look at the wider picture, of course there has always been talented french footballers, Cantona, etc. but only really at the height of the game.  Arsene Wenger used to be the big buyer from Le Championnat, what with his vast scouting network and oh being french and all. Pires, Vieira, Henry, Petit were all members of Arsenal's invincibles side. Now not only are there more of a choice of french players, but a plethora of belgian and african talents, all of which are beginning to catch the big boy's eye.

In the past few seasons however, the purchase of French talent at lower level has been more widespread. Generally, because where they were seen as not physical enough for the top leagues - in particular the Premier League - but now and increasingly so each year, that appears to have been a myth. Looking at the success stories of last season, Yohan Cabaye, when he moved to Newcastle from Lille, I tipped for success.   Though it took time for his burgeoning talent to come to the fore, it was always bubbling under the surface. Then his goal against Wigan in October was his moment. From then on he never looked back.

Lets look at the evidence with the new crop of french based talent.  

To name a few: (top to bottom, left to right) Eden Hazard (belgian, Lille) Marvin Martin, (french, Souchaux)   Yann M'Vila (french, Rennes) Laurent Koscielny (french, Arsenal) and Olivier Giroud (french, Montpellier)

The above four have all started to make big waves in France. 3 frenchman, 1 belgian.

Lets start with a guy who has been a sensation for the last 3 seasons at Lille. He was a guy who was earmarked by Arsene Wenger from an early age, but was priced out of any potential move to the Emirates and has now (like Mata, sigh) found a new home at Stamford Bridge, or the 'Power Station' as it's now, rather jovially being dubbed. He will not come cheap, mind. It is estimated his combined fee will reach £78m, once his wages and add ons have been taken into account.

God I hope Chelsea go bust.....i digress.....

Then we have two french midfielders; one 23, the other 24. Both in the Euro 2012 squad. M'Vila is a player who at the moment is a player who could be heading for Arsenal after the tournament. Where the other could be the cheaper, riskier alternative. Both players are excellent ball holders and adept at moving the play forward, much like Cesc Fabregas did.

The final player currently in focus is Montpellier's talismanic striker Olivier Giroud. His 25 goals and 9 assists     helped the french club win this seasons French title. Whilst comparisons could be made with Arsenal misfit Marouane Chamakh, he has better positioning and is stockier, which could be perfect for the Premier League, should he make the jump.

If France go far in the Euros, Id expect him to be up there with the top scorers.  

I will be posting a pre-euro piece next week

enjoy the weekend.

The Hodgson Appointment

greetings roaders!


less than a week has passed since the FA appointed Roy Hodgson as the surprise new England boss. Popular or not, it cannot be said it wasn't a major surprise. Everybody and his dog (and rosie) expected 'Arry to be the man to lead the country's hope, expectations - and ultimately - disappointment into the summers gathering in eastern europe.

Redknapp's destiny as next England manager seemed so assured - certainly according to the tabloid media - but in reality that was only media talk as much as transfer rumours are. In the time Capello resigned to 3pm last tuesday when Woyy was announced, the FA kept tightlipped over possible successors and not once did any representative speak openly about the position. So when its was finally announced as not the media's darling ol' twitchy himself, the press, much like a spoilt child, threw their toys out of the pram.

The british tabloids love Harry Redknapp. For the simple reason that 'Arry is a bent as they come, and he supplies the tabloid hacks with ammunition for both front and back pages, with his dodgy dealings and (alleged) tax evasion and this season with Tottenhams on-field exploits that had - for a considerable time - them in the Premier League title picture. For them he is a veritable goldmine. So I don't actually think and buy the total dissatisfaction they feel for Hodgson, certainly at the moment. It's just that Harry was THEIR choice and therefore, obviously the PEOPLE'S choice.

Doh!

So what does Roy Hodgson bring to the English national dining table? Hodgson's CV reads like a whose who of European football (and at times WHO?) certainly geographically; In Italy he had two spells at Inter in '95 and '99 and Udinese in 2001. He managed Grasshoppers of Zurich, immediately after his tenure at Inter ended. He also took charge of FC Copenhagen of Denmark in 2000. Since 2001 he has managed Finland and the UAE and had previously coached the Swiss national team between '92 and '95.


Now while the England job is BY FAR the most prestigious international posting, his international experience will do him no harm in major tournament scenarios. It would be no revelation to suggest that during Hodgson's tenure there may be few goals conceded and/or scored, as is his style. However as in evidence with West Brom, his sides also exhibit very good, attacking play, when given the chance. As West Brom's Peter Odemwingie even suggested, he makes average teams good;

     "I'm not saying the English team is average, but they have not shown the world that they are the best. Maybe Roy Hodgson might make a difference for them. They have great players but they have not won World Cups or European Championships."

Is this not the major problem with the team? Good players, big players, bigger egos. England has its egos. Terry and Lampard in particular. But what Hodgson has done in with big egos is to knock them down to size. Or drop them. This is what needs to happen with the England set-up. If Terry and Lampard do not pull rank they will be shipped out. No questions asked. Take these two volatile elements out and, arguably, there is just Wayne Rooney to control. But as Fergie has demonstrated this is possible and if he can do so, the fruits of Hodgson's labour could be rich indeed.


So what can we expect of Hodgson? Well expectations are pretty low (the press have ensured that) but this may just be perfect. We have seen that sometimes, just sometimes, the team ethos is more important than the sum of its' part. Take the Greek 2002 European champions, as a prime example; No big names, no big personalities, but a real team spirit of determination. It wasn't pretty, but it was successful. I don't think England will be a defensive as they were, but with the right coaching and techniques, England can become the defensive fortress it used to be.

Then we just need a goalscorer....

champs league analysis.....permeatations...

hi chaps.


Even before last Tuesdays incredibl (y lucky) result against Barcelona last night, I had a feeling that Chelsea were going to progress. It just had that feeling about it. One of those things. In the way Arsenal were meant to win the Champions League in 2005. (hmmm)....(sulk)


Looking at the stats over the two legs, they are nothing short of in-cre-di-ble.

                                           Barca                                                 Chelsea




Shots on Target                      29                                                       5
Possession %                         143                                                     67
Goals                                      2                                                        3


ONE HUNDRED AND FOURTY THREE PERCENT out of 200. thats extraordinary. Unsurprising, perhaps, but extraordinary nonetheless, that the winning team had 67 percent share of the 200 pie. in another way thats less than 3/8ths. and this is football that is meant to be balanced. Even if a team parked the bus, that would be a unfair representation of of what Chelsea managed to achieve.

It must have been a bendy-bus....

An even more amazing stat is that Chelsea, in 180 minutes of play, had just 5 shots on target, and scored 3 of them. Thats a 60 % conversion rate. and for that they must be commended. In comparison Barca's success rate was just under 7%. What?......

Instead of match reporting, I want to focus on who Chelsea will play on May 19 in Munich.


Not Real Madrid, no, but European champions of 2000, Bayern Munich. And personally, I had a feeling it would be the Germans who would progress to the final in their own back yard. Despite Cristiano Ronaldo giving the spaniards a 2 nil lead after 15 minutes, it only meant a slight advantage of a solitary goal, and with Bayern already having had chances to notch the oh-so-important away goal, it came as no shock that Robben scored from the spot in the 27nd minute, after Pepe felled him in the Real penalty area.


So followed another 93 minutes of goalless football that resulted in the ultimate lottery of the penalty shoot out. Being contested by the most efficient of world footballs' takers; (xenophobia aside) Zee Germans!

And so it proved - after one of the worst displays of twelve-yard kicking - to be the Germans, who, once again, pulled through when it mattered.

This will be Bayern's second european final in three years. In 2010, the Germans lost 2 nil at the Bernabeu, thanks to a Diego Milito brace, inspired by a - Bernabeu bound - Jose Mourinho's Inter side. There is one thing for sure; Bayern Munich will not want to lose another final, let alone in their own back yard of the Allianz Arena. This for me will be key...

Chelsea will be without at least 2 key defenders in Terry who was foolishly sent off for a knee in the back of Alexis Sanchez and Branislav Ivanovic, who was booked - and subsequently suspended - in the aftermath. (Geoff Shreeves, what a guy). Add to that Cahill and David Luiz still struggling to be fit in time (although I suspect they will) and the Blues could be faced with a defensive nightmare of pairing Jose Bosingwa and Paulo Ferrerira along the back line.

shudder...

They will also be without Meireles, but perhaps most crucially, Ramires, who has been a total revelation for Chelsea this season. In a sea of egos, he seems to be the most grounded individual. His loss come 18 nights from now will be key. Chelsea will have a shout, with the irrespressible Juan Mata behind the main striker, whether it be Torres or Drogba and his support with Salomon Kalou.

Bayern too will be without key members of the team. David Alaba has been superb at left back since his Juup Hyenckes installed the 19 year old from March. He can be covered tho in the form of Phillipp Lahm, his natural position and - as Luiz Gustavo is suspended also - if not him Rafinha. The biggest problem could be the absence of Holger Badstuber, now a national team stalwart. The ukranian Tymoschuk or Van Buyten may be utilised, but both lack agility and this could be where Chelsea thrive.

Where the game will be won, I feel, is the presence of Robben and Ribery. These two will expose Chelsea's core and be able to Supply talisman Mario Gomez. Also Bayern can call upon Toni Kroos and Schweinsteiger to be the ball winners for the Germans in midfield.

So it's tough to call but because of home advantage and Bayern's supreme home record, I would shade Bayern, say 2-1...


I shall return with my views on the impending England managerial appointment