November Assessment.. Whose Standing Out?

greetings roaders. We are now three months into the new season. I did a relegation piece a few weeks back and its curious how things are turning out. Some quite surprising. Instead of doing a team by team appraisal (which frankly would bore both you, and I) I am going to highlight the teams that are really raising collective eyebrows, across the board, for both the good and bad reasons.


EVERTON



Everton's excellent start to the season has caught some unaware. But I am not surprised. I have fancied them to do very well this season. They have a team with an excellent manager, a real togetherness with players that have played together for a few seasons now and their telephatic-like understanding of one another is really now showing. You combine that with a couple of inclusions that David Moyes has made, and the Toffees are now a force to be reckoned with; Home and away.

The purchase of Kevin Mirallas from Olympiakos in the Summer, could be one of the Glaswegian's best acquisitions to date and at only 6m to boot. Mirallas has a roaming role for Everton, primarily out on the left wing, but his industry allows him to cover the central role also, in the hole behind Nikica Jelavic. The belgian has scored 2 goals and has 3 assists to date. His open playing style has also alowed Jelavic to increase his contribution - thought not in goal tally - via his hard work and strength up top. Mirallas playing wide has also allowed Marouane Fellaini to play in a new position behind the striker and use his height and formidable strength. This new freedom has allowed Fellaini (and his hair) to notch up 6 goals already. For those of you that don't have a degree in rocket science, thats a goal every two games....

For me though, the key difference to Everton this season is the link up play between Leighton Baines and Steven Pienaar. last season Baines' attacking commodities came to the fore. Now he can defend more than adequately, frequently being the Toffees' last line of defence but now also has a telepathy with his South African team mate that allows Baines to bomb forward whilst Pienaar can simultaneously cover his run but also to provide a real width in the attack. Baines is also the designated penalty taker and he has not missed a single league penalty to date.

They may indeed sit fifth now, but if they are to challenge for a top four spot, they really need to convert more of the plethora of chances they create. As was in evidence at the weekend.

that leads me very nicely on to....


NORWICH

After tipping the Canaries to struggle - which they initially did - Norwich have turned into a solid outfit. They have played nearly a third of games in the season already and yes they have lost a third of those games, but that doesn't really tell the story. The Arsenal game seemed to prove pivotal - Certainly to Arsenal - But also Norwich City.

That was the game that signaled the beginning of the current malaise of Arsenal. Conversely, Norwich have gone six games unbeaten. That includes that against Arsenal, but also Man Utd at Carrow Road, where they have not conceded a single goal, also beating Stoke City. Norwich also recorded draws at Reading, Villa and most impressively against the aforementioned Everton, this past weekend. In six games then they have scored five but only conceded two. That's impressive in anyones book. They may not be prolific, but boy can these budgies defend ;)....


I think a lot of their progress can be apportioned to two players; Sebastian Bassong and Javi Garrido. Garrido, lets not forget is a former Man City left back and is not shoddy. He's not what you would call world-class but sometimes, especially in the EPL, teams don't need that; just that one player who threads things together nicely, or rather two in this case. Bassong Ive always liked as a player. He wasn't given a fair crack at Newcastle, less so at Spurs, but was still out of favour much of the time. But that is kind of the point; He's not an amazing player, but he is a perfect fit for a mid table Premier League side that doesn't score many goals.



I still think Norwich will go through a rough spell, but having beaten two of the top four sides, they have to fancy their chances of staying out of trouble. As I predicted, Chris Hughton has got the Canaries playing well.


SWANSEA


In my pre season article, I didn't really focus on the Welsh outfit, as I knew they would be fine. They have a great manager and a great footballing ethos, that Brendan Rodgers installed and that now Michael Laudrup has continued. Swansea deserve huge praise. When a new manager comes in, much uncertainly awaits. Laudrup however has bought very shrewdly, much like a young Arsene Wenger would have done at the beginning of his Arsenal tenure.


Case and point being Miguel Cuesta, or 'Michu'. Signed from Rayo for just 2 million pounds in the Summer, after scoring 15 goals in La Liga in his first season there. Michu perhaps is not your classic Premier League striker, which may be the reason why so few teams went in for him as well as the fact Rayo weren't exactly setting the world alight with their style of football. Nevertheless, in 12 games, he has scored 7 goals already. In the same league, Fernando Torres has scored just 4 more, despite his 59 appearances. Huge credit has to go to Michael Laudrup for that, but perhaps more moreso with Pablo Hernandez.

Another Spaniard at Swansea. Together with Chico Flores, Angel Rangel and Michu, not forgetting Jonathan de Guzman's La Liga experience with Villarreal, Pablo has settled in very nicely in the first third of the season. How Swansea managed to sign Hernandez from Valencia for the measly sum of 5million pounds, I still haven't quite worked out. It was a total coup in my eyes. Hernandez has played with the likes of Mata, Villa, Joaquin, Albelda and Soldado and it is evident he has learnt well from them. Very well.

Deployed on the right winger, often drifting inside, he gets plentiful service from De Guzman, Leon Britton but also Wayne Routledge, who likes to switch wings often during periods of play. Pablo scored 16 goals for Valencia during 4 seasons and is not prolific, certainly, but his hold up play is strong and allows Swansea to flood forward in numbers on the counter attack. He has already scored 2 goals in 9 appearances for the Swans; that is sure to increase.

Swansea will meander in terms of form throughout the season and they will draw more games than they win, but the Welsh outfit, under the great Dane, will be absolutely fine. 


I will be reviewing teams throughout the season..


if you have yet to do so, please follow me on twitter @the91stneil

De Ja Wenger...

afternoon roaders. slightly later post than anticipated and also to say part two of my Dortmund feature will follow soon.


As an Arsenal fan, I have seen the good times, but most recently (and quite often) the bad and the ugly, infact quite hideous.  Once again the ugly has reared its head, after the clubs best start in years, certainly defensively-speaking. Whether it be a cogent argument of not, the facts do not lie; Since the international break Arsenal have simply not been the same team.


After being unbeaten in five games at the start of the season, conceding only 2 goals in the process, Chelsea rolled up to the Emirates and squeaked a 2-1 win. I was concerned. With just one game to go until the interlull, we had to go to West Ham on a chilly Saturday October evening and I foresaw a tough game. Such fears however, did not materialize, and we gave an excellent showing, with Olivier Giroud and Santi Cazorla running the show in an impressive 1-3 win. Make no mistake; West Ham will be hard to beat at the Boleyn ground for the remainder of the season. I was upbeat.


Certainly moreso, as our return game was against Norwich at Carrow Road. Norwich are a tricky side to play away no doubt and after sharing 6 goals the last time the sides met, there would have been trepidation. But the last team to play Norwich away were Liverpool, who lets be honest are a team in transition and yet they are capable of scoring 5. So Arsenal, having scored 10 goals in their previous 10 league games, should have been optimistic, and strong favourites to record a win.

Unfortunately with Arsenal these days, form can dip - alarmingly so - resulting in great players becoming completely average. Arsenal are the prime example of a confidence team; When one players form drop it spreads through the team like wildfire. Norwich was the beginning of such malaise. Norwich marked out Santi Cazorla out of the whole game, yes, but other elements of Arsenal's attacking, er, Arsenal were simply missing. Ramsey was running about unsure of his role, Gervinho was his usual profligate self, Giroud just didnt look happy and Ive never seen Thomas Vermaelen so jittery.

But the big factor for me was the absence of Kieran Gibbs. Gibbs' progress at the infancy of stage of this season, should not be overlooked. His defensive ability has doubled but his pace and elusiveness has also been a headache for teams in the attacking phase of the pitch. In Gibbs' absence Andre Santos has had to cover his position. Ask any Arsenal fan what they think of him and you will get a response along the lines of; 'Santos? oh he's good in attack but he just cannot defend'. Case and point the Chelsea game at Stamford Bridge last season. That is what we have seen of late, only now we don't get his attacking.


After conceding just 5 goals in 7 games, scoring 13, since the Norwich game, that rate has increased, letting in 7 goals in only 5 games, but more worryingly, scoring only 3 against Schalke, but only a stoppage time consolation versus Man Utd and a late, controversial Mikel Arteta goal at home versus QPR. The goals have dried up and I would argue its down to the Presence of the brazilian left back. Andre Santos is comparable to Glen Johnson in his lack of defensive nouse, but good attacking threat. I know for sure if I was a centre- back next to Santos, I would be terrified. I imagine that is whats occurring with Vermaelen, psychologically. In the first Schalke game at the Emirates, Santos was utterly out of his depth. In the first half he was repeatedly out of position, but looked totally out of shape and seemed to have little or no fitness.


Then there was Andre Santos at Old Trafford last weekend. Another inept performance, but what was so shockingly evident was his lack of care, passion or commitment. This was epitomised by his childish behaviour, begging for his 'mate' RVPs shirt. Now I could forgive that at the end of the game. but this is half time. It's like me turning up to work, doing a half assed job, just to be paid. The difference is I would be sacked. This is a professional footballer getting paid an obscene amount of money, in his case unjustly. Its a disgrace.

Then there is the performance as a whole. I understand the whole not wanting to concede 8 goals again. But as soon as Robin scored, we effectively shut up shop. Both teams played poorly. But the difference was, Utd looked like they gave a fuck. They simply didnt need to play well though, because Arsenal had no intention of attacking. That is a disgrace. Robin was right about the direction of the club. It sickens me to see him in a Utd shirt, but i cant be angry at him, because he is bang on.

I want to go back to my main focus of this article, that being Arsene Wenger. I don't wish to cover old ground, but I feel I may. So I want to look at why I am doing so in the first place. I want to make some things abundantly clear in my mind at least. Arsene Wenger revolutionized Arsenal Football; we are now a big, profitable club. But successful as our beloved CEO Ivan Gazidis states? Successful? we were successful, in 2005, heck we were in 2009, but this is 2012. Enough is enough. Arsene Wenger was a revolutionary manager and was superb at picking talent, grooming them and making them incredibly gifted footballers. But what about today?

In this writers mind, he was revolutionary, but unfortunately he is not evolutionary. That is where we are today. The only manager who has lasted longer than Wenger in management is Sir Alex. 25 years of ups, downs but much success. But he has not been the same manager throughout his tenure. He has evolved. He has had to. Wenger has not evolved, or at least not to the degree that he should have. Mainly because Arsene is now a law unto himself; He is essentially untouchable in his job. He would never be sacked, he would only walk away (which I would say is now a distinct possibility). His frugal spending habits, have made him the apple of his bosses eyes. The club is always in profit. Net spending is significantly less than net profit. For this reason, his shortcomings are never highlighted to him, because in Peter Hill Wood, Ivan Gazidis and Stan Kronke's eyes he is making them very very wealthy men indeed.


Wenger has always liked playing with 4-3-3 formation. In the Arsenal heydays of old, Henry would be supported by Pires on the left and Ljungberg on the right. Then the midfield would do the rest; Vieira, Petit and Gilberto would hold and push up also. These guys were bossed of the ball. Todays equivalent is Aaron Ramsey. Now I like Rambo, but I'm sorry he is not good enough for Arsenal Football Club. he repeatadly gives the ball away by trying to do to much. In the last few games prior to Fulham, he was deployed on the right on the 3 up top. Wenger seems to think that Ramsey is Iniesta. Sadly, he is not and too often is found wanting

As we saw on Saturday and as I predicted, Fulham pushed Arsenal very close again. The width of Riise and Kacaniklic, together with the guile of Bryan Ruiz and the ferocity of Berbatov was a big problem for the deflated outfit to handle. Even at two nil up, I was never convinced it was plain sailing (unlike that illiterate, unqualified pony, Robbie Savage). It just seemed to me the team looked as flat and had no ideas and lacked directed, with Wenger flapping about like a turkey at Christmas, in its vain attempts to avoid the farmer. Its just not right.

This is now Arsenal's worse start to a season under Wenger. Thats 30 years ago, 1982, when we had 14 pts. But football was different then to the fast paced game we have now. I would argue, that even with the likes of Vieira, Petit, Gilberto, etc. that they wouldn't have the same impact. This is what Arsene does not comprehend. Football changes. He is like the old-fashioned grandparent who refuses (or doesnt acknowledge) change. So, 25 years ago we were, on paper better than now. That means pre-Wenger. If that doesnt mean Arsenal have gone backwards, I dont know what evidence there is.


Its all just so stale. If Wenger stays, with Gazidis preached Financial Fair Play within 2 years we'll be nearer Liverpool than Man City. That is food for thought. We thought the North London derby last year was pivotal. It could just be Wenger's last one(s)

Dominant Dortmund. Part 1...

greetings roaders.


I thought this issue, I would focus on a team outside of the Premier League (indeed this issue will be staggered over the course of this week as I want to go into things at length) A team who have had past glories and until fairly recently, have faded into the limelight of European Football. A team who I have followed with interest for four years. A team who I would like to claim as my fourth team (but that would be ridiculous)


Borussia Dortmund.


Dortmunds history had its golden era (much like PSGs) in the mid 90s. Ottmar Hitzfeld was at the helm for much of their success. After being hired in 1991, Dortmund went on to win the Bundesliga in '95 and '96 for two successive years and beat a much fancied Juventus side 3 -1, in a memorable 1997 Champions League Final in Munich. The side included European Champion Matthias Sammer, Lars Ricken and the prolific Jan Koller

The years that followed saw their downfall. Hitzfeld was sacked in '98. The Westfalenstadion, (named after the region of Westphalia, where it is located) Dortmund's home, started to mount up debt, due to poor management and the economic climate in Germany. In 2000, the club were floated on the German Stock Exchange with little success. This set the club back further.

In 2006, the stadium was renamed Signal Iduna Park - as it is now - to reduce debts. The stadium is named after a local insurance company. The stadium is the biggest in Germany ahead of the Allianz Arena and Veltins Arena. It holds up to 80,000 people. Any visitors can be assured of an electric, partizan atmosphere.

Though a 'fresh' stadium and fresh financial approach was installed, Dortmund remained in the doldrums until 2008, when Jurgen Klopp was appointed. At the time, Klopp had just resigned as manager of relegated Mainz and was a free agent. In his first year alone, he won the the DFB Supercup (the equivalent of the Capital One Cup), beating Bayern in the final. It was clear that Klopps approach of attacking football had reinvigorated the former champions of Europe.



In the 2010/11 season, Dortmund won the Bundesliga - at a canter - winning the championship with two games remaining. The following season, they defended their title successfully, winning the Bundesliga with a record total of 81 points, together with winning the DFB Pokal, to win Dortmund's first-ever domestic football double. Winning the Bundesliga that season, for the fifth time now means players wear two stars above the crest on their shirts.

In their first season back in the Champions League last term, they made a lot of admirers with their attacking style. However they could only finish bottom of their group behind Arsenal, Olympiacos and Marseille. Marseille, after conceding two late goals at home in the final group game, meaning they missed out on place in the latter rounds of the Europa League.

One former player of that winning roster included Man Utd's Shinji Kagawa (much of whom's performances got him the move).

in Part 2, I will focus on the current roster, Dortmunds current style influences and the potential bright, almost golden, but most certainly exciting future, that may be in store for Germanys most fashionable club.

The Ones To Watch...

greeting roaders!

the interlull is once again up us. sigh. but fear not I have plenty candy for your eyes. read on dear viewer.


so in place of my usual piece, i am going to look further abroad, to the continent. Yes, thats right, the players that may or may not be making an arrival in the Premier League sooner or later.


Luis Muriel, is I have to be honest, a player that slipped off my radar of late. A player that had been offloaded on loan more than a certain Danishman I could name. He seemed to be a player who just didn't quite have it when it came to breaking into the top level of players on the continent. Having had loan spells with Lecce in Serie A, and Granada in Segunda division, Muriel has now returned to Udinese, and signed a new 5 year contract. Now his club obviously see his burgeoning talent coming through.

Muriel, a former two time world under 16 player of the year, has had problems breaking into the first team at Udinese, perhaps due to the evergreen Antonio di Natale. If you are a keen Fifa 13 player, you will be aware of this blistering pace (but not his acceleration as EA Sports, have decided) and he has started this season promisingly and has now been called up to the Colombian national team, alongside the Vargas', Guarins and Falcaos.  


What is going on in Catalonia? There must clearly be something in the water, as Barcelona's conveyor belt of talent shows no sign of breaking down. One again last season saw the emergence of new talent at le Camp Nou. One of said talent being Cristian Tello. Tello came up through Barca's B team and is primarily a winger. He has had limited chances to start games under Pep Guardiola, such is the plethora of talent. It was strongly rumoured that he did not fit into Tito Vilanova's first team plans this season and a move was mooted but the 21 year old has confounded his doubters - and his manager - to force his way into the first team squad.





This season he has appeared prominently in the Champions League, and had a starring role in the comeback home victory against Spartak last month and was named man of the match. Whether he can continue his strides depends very much on his competitiors, and as he is they include Messi, Pedro, Adriano, Cuenca and the returning David Villa, he has his work cut-out.



Another player who finally has his chance to shine is Isco of Malaga. When Santi Cazorla departed for Arsenal in the summer, it was meant to signal the end of the Qatari owned club's short lived spell of wealth. Santi left, Rondon departed for Serie A and Isco was meant to follow, with Liverpool, Arsenal and Man Utd all mentioned strongly. But nothing materialised - yet. he seemed happy to stay. In Cazorlas absence, Isco has been given a free reign of the midfield and left wing, much like Hoilett was supposed to be QPR (ahem).

In Malaga's champions league debut versus Zenit, he was the star of the show, scoring twice and running the ball from both ends of the pitch. He was also instrumental in the 3 nil away win at Anderlecht. Isco has yet to have his big breakthrough. he played for Valencia's youth team from 2006 to 2009 and progressed onto the first team, before moving to Malaga last summer. At only 20, it seems Isco is primed for his role as one of the most exciting players on the continent, and for me will get a big move within the next two seasons.

I want to finish the weeks piece, on someone you should already be aware of and as such, should not be labelled as 'one to watch'. But as i have not covered him in any sort of detail I will now.

that man is Radamel Falcao.

For me it is straight forward enough. He is the best striker in the world, at present. Period. He is a player I have noted for the last four years. Falcao, for those that have been living under a rock, is a 27 year old Colombian striker. Falcao was purchased by Porto from River Plate in 2009, for the paltry sum of, 3.95 million euros. He then showed Europe what he was all about. In his first season with Porto he scored 25 goals finishing behind Oscar Cardozo only. In 2010/11 he scored 17 goals in one season of the Europa League to overtake Jurgen Klinsmann's record of 15 goals in one european campaign. Suffice to say, Porto won the trophy.

The following summer, he moved to the spanish capital, with Atletico, replacing the outgoing Sergio Aguero, for 40m euros. It has been with Los Coloncheros, that Falcao has impressed me the most. Particularly in the Europa League. Every time I see him play he scores goal; he is prolific; he oozes skill and balance. His performance versus Bilbao in the final last year was sensational, scoring two goals and terrorising the Bilbao defence all night. But the key for me is that they had very few clear chances in the game. Anything that comes his way he dispatches, he is the ultimate clinician; GP would be proud of him (bad joke)

In the Super Cup versus Chelsea, even as the season was in its embryonic stages, he destroyed and humiliated Chelsea's defence. Falcao ruthlessness infront of goal makes him the best striker in world football.
Manchester City, Arsenal and Chelsea are sniffing very loudly around him and a move of 45million euros is being suggested in the spanish media. He is a very likely to be seen in the Premier League very, very soon.

That fills me with  huge amount of excitement.

Oh and of course dread :/

Liverpool teetering...

afternoon roaders!

nothing 3 weeks, then 2 come along in five days. That's better than the transport service in my home village.....

The weekend saw the red half of Liverpool lose their third game in 5 matches. Liverpool have the grand total of 2 points out of 15. Its horrendous. What's worse they are currently perched on the precipiece of the abyss (The Championship) and only Reading and Southampton are lower than they. Pepe Reina has seen his net bulge ten times already this season and have only scored four in response. Lets take a look at their results:

WEST BROM 3-0 LIVERPOOL

LIVERPOOL 2-2 MAN CITY

LIVERPOOL 0-2 ARSENAL

SUNDERLAND 1-1 LIVERPOOL

LIVERPOOL 1-2 MAN UTD

Now looking at these results you wouldn't say that was a nightmare scenario. They played superbly against Man City at Anfield, only for Skrtel to single-handedly present Carlos Tevez with a late goal gift wrapped, that denied Liverpool the three points, which would have been completely merited. They were dominated by Arsenal's midfield though and although they were the better side against Man United on sunday, they still, nonetheless, lost. 

If we look further ahead, that means that having played both Manchester clubs and Arsenal at home, they will have to play all three of those later on this season, away. The only sight worse than Liverpool's current league position, will be to look at the away record. In short, it is horrific.

Liverpool's malaise, one could argue, is as a direct consequence of King Kenny's frivolous and exhuberant spending on frankly average players. (Downing, 20m, Suarez, 24m, Jose Enrique, 7m). Yes, Carroll is a good player, but at Liverpool, it is simply an improbability, given the players he has in support of him, or rather the lack thereof. But then again, it is not like they haven't spent quite a bit of money over the summer. Joe Allen was bought for a extortionate price tag of 15m from Swansea. Allen is a good player but no player  from the Welsh side, bar possibly Aaron Ramsey and Gareth Bale, is worth even 10m.    

Liverpool's main strike signing is Fabio Borini. signed from Roma for 10.5m (what!). Considering Roma signed him from Chelsea for 7m euros - aside from the fact he is now an international for Italy (albeit a bench warmer)- this some pretty shoddy business, for a guy who was a flop at Stamford Bridge and Swansea. He is quick and seems skillful enough, but no more than a Sterling or a Suso - sitting in the Liverpool talent pool already - and who for my money, are better than Borini. It really is Extraordinary. 

Liverpool are crying out for a striker. Luiz Suarez is a fantastically gifted player. Not just at diving though, but he is so so profligate,that it frequently comes back to haunt The Reds. If only he converted half the chances that he made Liverpool would perhaps, be in the polar opposite league position of third from top and not bottom. That makes the Borini signing even more staggering. They needed a clinical striker. 

Clint Dempsey would not necessarily have been that, but Liverpool would have bought a goalscorer with one of the best conversions rates IN THE PREMIER LEAGUE in recent years. But they missed out him. How I am still perplexed. On deadline day, Villa came in with a £7m bid, which was accepted by Fulham, but understandably, Dempsey was more than reluctant to join, as he was seemingly destined for Liverpool. Every man and his dog expected a bid from Liverpool; and it came but at only £3m, 

Hold on a minute. Haven't Liverpool got a billionaire owner who owns the Fenway Sports Group, who owns the Boston Red Sox? No?......Surely hes got £7m in his 'Purse' alone?.....So instead, Tottenham come in with an offer of £5m pounds and that is accepted at 10pm. REALLY?...

It seems that Liverpool have less money than JJB Sports. But it is symptomatic of the poor recent history of Liverpool FC's, not just transfer policy, but business as a whole.

So how bad is their position exactly? Liverpool's next six fixtures are thus: 

Norwich away

Stoke home

Reading home

Everton away

Newcastle home

Chelsea away

It is quite conceivable, that Liverpool lose to Norwich, Everton, and Chelsea, the away games. However Stoke have proved to be a thorn in the side to many teams. Reading are the sort of team that would frustrate them. Newcastle have oodles of goal potential and defend well. If Liverpool got 9 points from these results it would be a total result. But I have my doubts they would even win one. Reading is almost a guarantee surely.

I think now, the biggest concern would be with the news that Daniel Agger could miss a large chunk of the season. Liverpool are a good defensive unit with Agger. He is a constant threat when in the oppositions half. But without him they are pretty horrible. Skrtel has a great understanding with him. With Martin Kelly out for the season with cruciate ligament damage also, Liverpool are in a potentially very serious situation. But could they go down?

Surely Not.

One of two things will happen; Brendan Rogers will be sacked; Liverpool will drop to the Championship. If this happens, (unthinkable I know) John Henry will take his ball and leave. Liverpool will be left with a mountainous pile of debt and with their sponsors, Standard Chartered in a precarious financial position, Liverpool could become the next Leeds United. 

Quite a thought...that.....   

    

The Seeds Of Hope....and Despair

afternoon roaders.

you can follow me on twitter: @the91stneil


hope you like the new site and layout. comments as always welcome.


this post I am going to focus on the bottom half of the table and look at the teams who are at the moment propping up the table and who are the likely candidates to go down this season. And right now, it is quite fascinating....


VILLA:

Having started the season the worst of all twenty EPL teams - certainly aesthetically - Aston Villa fans must have felt so out of place, it would have been akin to turning up dressed as Robin at an all-Batman convention. The opening two games produced two defeats to West Ham 1 nil at the Boleyn Ground - albeit tight - but a more worrying 3 1 defeat to a powerful and confident Everton side. But perhaps the worries were unfounded. Certainly against a tough and dominant Newcastle side at St James' Park, they played far far better than in their previous two games and at times deserved to win the game. Nonetheless a point on Tyneside is nothing to be sniffed at.

In hindsight we shouldnt be surprised at the Villains curious and at times baffling start to the season. 4 points from 12 is nothing to shout about certainly, but this a Paul Lambert side we are talking about. Last season, when he was managing Norwich City in their return to the top flight, Norwich garnered only 2 points from 12 from the opening 4 games. They then went on a two record two wins in a row and after that - aside from a close defeat to Man Utd at Old Trafford - the next loss was against Aston Villa in November. Norwich went on to finish twelfth. Paul Lambert is clearly a manager who knows what he is doing, its just takes a while for his sides to get into their stride and considering he only took charge during the summer, there is much room for optimism.

In stark contrast to the opening two games Villa began to pass the ball around nicely and whilst they may not have the most Hollywood of squads they can indeed gel well. Last season at times Ciaran Clark produced some superb form and as he was deployed for the most part in central midfield, by the then Villa manager, Gerard Houllier before his untimely health scare. He was allowed freedom to express himself on the ball notching up 3 goals including a double versus Arsenal and one against Chelsea. Under Lambert, Clark has been deployed in both midfield and also in defence, scoring one last against Newcastle in their 1 1 draw.

Clark links up superbly with the enigma that is Steven Ireland and their new Aussie attacking midfielder, Brett Holman. Christian Benteke who signed on deadline day also has opened up his account with a confident finish late in the game last weekend to confirm the 3 points for Villa. Then they still have the out of sorts Darren Bent and the injury nagged Gabby Agbonlahor. They have the tools.

Lambert has proven he has the nouse for the Premier League. If Aston Villa continue to progress as a team, they should have no problems in surviving.


91ST PREDICTION: MID TABLE


SOUTHAMPTON:

At this stage I am concerned for the Saints. True they have played both Manchester clubs, one home, one away and Arsenal away, but they have also lost to Wigan at St Marys'. hmmmm....its a tricky one. The cold hard facts are they have conceded 14 goals in 4 games are rock bottom with no points and goal difference of minus 9. They have scored 2 against both Manchester clubs, but the only other goal has come on the back of a 6 1 annihilation by the Gunners last weekend. For me, I don't think they have a problem in scoring goals. From what I have seen, their achilles heel lies in their inability to keep the ball in the first 3rd of the pitch; it certainly led to United snatching all three points from a seemingly strong position at 2 1 up.

Up top the Saints have a very potent combination in Adam Lallana and Rickie Lambert; the two chief reasons they are in the PL in the first case. Guly do Prado is also present but questions will now be asked of him after his drink drive charge. Elsewhere the goal threats are likely to come from £13m Gaston Ramirez from Bologna, which was something of a coup for the club, and the fledging James Ward-Prowse and veteran Jason Puncheon. As we have seen in the past, teams dont need big names, they just need players to gel.


The defence is my area of concern. Hooiveld, Fonte, Fox and Clyne, as a back line, do not fill me with optimism. Danny Fox, formerly of Burnley, so with PL experience is more of a attacking outlet. Nathaniel Clyne is quick but as any Palace fan will atest, he is no top-drawer defender. Too often already this campaign, the wide areas for Southampton have been barren landscapes, not dissimilar to the Kalahari desert (indeed the defence may have been backpacking over there). These gaps need to be plugged. Hooiveld has the aerial presence to trouble defenders at set pieces, but Jose Fonte - though relatively stocky - is too lightweight in his current form.

Southampton are a side I will look forward to seeing play, especially at home. there passing and movement is fluid and they are a exciting team to watch. However at the moment, against more experienced players and teams, they may have real problems in preventing goals from leaking. This could change. But...


91ST PREDICTION: RELEGATION


READING:


This is a tough call. Having only played 3 games due to their game at Sunderland being postponed, it is hard to say much about the Royals, without it being knee-jerk. They have one more point than the Saints, having played Chelsea away, drawing with Stoke and losing 3 1 to Spurs on Sunday. The showing against Chelsea was impressive though. Conceding an early Frank Lampard penalty, Reading responded with a powerful Pogrebnyak header and a sumptuous Danny Guthrie free kick to take the lead at the European champions. Yes, they went on to lose 4 2, but for 20 mins, they had the Blues in real strife.



Reading's squad has a real mix of the old and new about it. Veterans Jason Roberts and the evergreen Ian Harte continue to add to their PL appearances stats. Its likely the goals will come from £5m Fulham signing, Pavel Pogrebnyak, who scored 6 goals for the Cottagers, including a home debut hat-trick and has shown he has the potential to be prolific. Elsewhere, the goal threat is likely to come with the experienced Danny Guthrie, who has the ability to put the ball on a dime from set pieces and Adam Le Fondre who remains a real threat from the bench.

At the back Alex Pearce and Kaspars Gorkss have combined into a good unit - certainly in the Championship - and could be a good duo for the more physical sides as Stoke and Wigan. The aforementioned Ian Harte, now 35, remains the stalwart left back for the Berkshire side and whose experience cannot be argued. However, at times he can be found wanting be pacy wingers, as Gareth Bale and Eden Hazard have exhibited.


For me, the key ingredient of the Reading side will be Garath McCleary. Signed from Nottm Forest in the summer, he is the lynchpin of much of Reading's play. Only 25, McClearys crossing ability is there for all to see and his final ball is very good. with such a tall figure as Pogrebnyak as the target man, Reading could get much joy from his industry. Expect this man to get quite a few assists this seasons.

Tough season ahead for Reading but in Brian McDermott they have a guy who is able to compete


91ST PREDICTION: 16,17th





QPR:

So having thrown money at almost anything that moved in the last month of the transfer window, millionaire owner Tony Fernandes has assured that the West-Londoners wont see a repeat of their last day relegation scrap. Right? Well potentially not Mark Hughes has proved to be a manager that - currently - cannot handle the egos associated with multi-millionaires and the wealth that they bring to the table. Much like happened to him at Man City that saw him sacked. But further than that the players he has under his wing, don't seem to gel particularly well. 


QPR have brought in, Stephane Mbia from Marseille who is a good midfielder and will hold the ball well aswell as deflecting it. Ryan Nelsen from Spurs, is the main defensive signing. But although he does score from set pieces regularly, his defensive ability has began to creak like a old vauxhall; reliable but whose oil needs changing weekly. They brought Andy Johnson in from Fulham after his contract expired but he is now out of the picture having picked up an injury against Chelsea at the weekend. But in Zamora, Cisse and Mackie they have goals. But how many?




More importantly can they keep the goals out? In Julio Cesar, they have former Brazilian number 1 between the sticks; Cesar is a great shot stopper and is a intimidating presence. More often than not, he will be the difference between a point and not. those points could be crucial.

The big factors for QPR will be in their other two major signings, Junior Hoilett and Esteban Granero. Hoilett was a revelation at a sinking ship in Blackburn Rovers. He is pacy and dynamic and arguably the most skillful canadian to ever grace these shores. Hoilett will be given free reign over the midfield and will create all sorts of openings. In the first two games he was deployed as such but after disappointing displays he was dropped for the next two. Where he features now, time will tell.

Granero signed from Madrid on transfer deadline day for £5m. Having been on the books in the Spanish capital for 5 years, having had a loan spell at Getafe (folllowed by a full year there) he returned to the Bernabeu but failed to hold down a place. No surprise there. There is also no doubt about his obvious talent and QPR could well have got themselves a bargain.





91ST PREDICTION:  18th and RELEGATION


LIVERPOOL:

Surely not?.....well lets be honest. Currently there are very few teams with worse cohesion and team work than Liverpool. we shall see.


If I was a fan, I'd be worried....


Those are the four I have focused on and we are four down, thirty four to go. Much can change. but it will likely between these teams


Southampton
Reading
Qpr
Norwich
Villa

more to come on this throughout the season.

Wengers Transfer Policy.....Diabys Returns

Greetings, roaders!


The Summer was busier than expected so I had (reluctantly) decided to put the blog on hiatus.

BUT

The return of our beloved Premier League has swung yours truly back into action once again. Huzzah

After 3 matchdays, now we are well back into the swing of things, only for the pesky international break to interfere. gah! oh well, we can but hope that break applies to a certain Dutchman whilst on duty for Holland.

no malice of forethought of course. alas......


The transfer window slammed shut on Friday night and certain clubs that should have been desperate to add to their ranks were conspicuous by their absence. Notably Arsenal and Liverpool. We shall focus on the latter later.

Arsenal have had one of their most successful - at least on paper - summer windows in recent memory. Having already snared Lu-lu-lu-Lukas Podolski before the season finished, Wenger swooped for Giroud and Santi Cazorla. Cazorla, might I add for an absolute pittance. Malaga's loss was hugely Arsenal's gain and for just £11.9m also, due to the fire sale taking place in both southern Spain and a certain Kuwaiti billionaires mansion. (perhaps literally) . Arsene you say? ;)


However after then selling a certain dutchman, who shall not be named, (ever again) and the rather overrated Song, combined with missing out after Nuri Sahin, following Arsenal's unwillingness to be held to ransom by Jose and co. (rightly so in my mind), the consensus was that the Gunners were a man or two light. Cue transfer window deadline day; much expected, but as usual much disappointment. There were rumblings of a loan deal for Chelsea's Michael Essien, but Di Matteo, rather wisely would not allow it.


So 11pm struck and no deals. Oh.

I, as an impressionable young man, started to panic; How could we not replace one of our starting 11? make that two of said 11. I was raging, albeit quietly. Arsenal still have a pleasantly strong squad, now that elements of the deadwood are disappearing, however I felt that we were still too light in the centre of midfield ; Ramsey is too easily bossed off the ball and is prone to sloppyness, certainly at the moment; Wilshere is a while away from full match fitness, Eastmond is crap, Frimpong is out, as is Rosicky and Diaby is well injury prone TO SAY THE LEAST. Other options are to play the Ox or Coquelin centrally, but both are still learning.


Prior to the window closing he had said he will bring in one or two quality players. But as the windows began to ease shut, that statement began to look hazy, at best.

On the eve of Aug 30, Wenger was heard to say;

“We are active but we don’t want to bring average players in. I am relaxed…if we find a top, top, top player we will do it. We are working hard.”

This is what I have an issue with. Who is a top, top quality player?

* Eden Hazard? 32m. 6 assists and 1 goal in his first three games for Chelsea.
* A certain dutchman.
* Radamel Falcao who is prolific for Atletico Madrid, but who has a £50m buy-out clause.


just a few there, but the top, top players will cost an absolute bomb and chances are you will only be able to have one of these 'toys' if your owner happens to be a Russian or Qatari gazillionaire. Arsenal have Stan Kronke. Yes........


But thats not really my issue with Wenger's statement. You don't necessarily need 'top,top' players. Teams just need a certain jeu-ne-sei-quoi to add to the mix. Take for example, Tottenham. Perennial door-knockers to the top 4 places, but unable to break into the top 3 or even challenge for the title. last summer, 'Arry added Scott Parker to their ranks on Deadlne day. Parker is not a world class player, nor top, top. He is however a very good player, and works like a trojan. He is like the christmas present that keeps giving.



When Parker was installed into Spurs' midfield, everything seemed to click; Adebayor, Bale, Modric, Walker. He only added a small amount but that amount was the final ingredient, that for the majority of last season made the Lily Whites real title contenders. To the point I was scared. Of course I take no joy in the fact that the wheels on the Spurs bus fell off, but the point remains that that 5'7 of Scotty Parker made Spurs a force. There are plenty more examples out there.

So it has been a lovely surprise that one Abou Vassiriki Diaby, has started the season much like Tomas Rosicky did last season. bouncing about, passing like a maestro and generally dominating the oppositions midfield. There are currently no signs of his injury problems that have plagued him so often of late.

Yet......

At times yesterday, there were glimpses of Patrick Vieira, as we all know that Diaby could be and more. Jack Wilshere's timeline for recovery is unclear. He is due back in a month but there are bound to be setbacks. All long-term injury sufferers after a year out hit a wall. Especially Arsenal players. So it is more key than ever that Diaby stays as fit as possible. Already for me, he should be used in league games only. He should be wrapped in cotton wool. There is no doubt in my mind that if Diaby stays fit, the absence of Alex Song will not be felt and Arsenal will be a force.

      

euro 2012 preview

greetings roaders.

On the eve of the beginning of the most anticipated major footballing tournament since, well, World Cup 2010, It is time to post my thoughts, predictions and a look at the favourites, but also some of the dark horses to lift the trophy in Kiev on July 1st

The Favourites:

SPAIN

We have to begin really with the holders and many people's pick, Spain. All the household favourites will in attendance; Xavi, Iniesta, Alonso, Ramos, Casillas et al. Absent however will be the spaniards relentless captain, Carles Puyol and prolific major tournament goalscorer David Villa. 

There will be some new faces along for the ride; Athletic Bilbaos defensive mid Javi Martinez will be expected to fill the collossal boots of Puyol and if he's not he could be deployed next to Xabi Alonso in a holding role. In attack will be Chelsea's versatile winger and playmaker Juan Mata, though it is doubtful he will squeeze himself into a starting berth, such is the talent at Spain's disposal. Throw David Silva into the mix also.

Another of Bilbao's players and perhaps the biggest key to Spain's hopes is Fernando Llorente. In toutnaments past, the holders have always had a prolific marksmen (Villa, Torres). Having had a sensational season in Spain, as both scorer and provider this could be his tournament and is my pick for golden boot. More on that in a minute.

A lot of pundits have opted for Spain as champions. Not for me. Yes, I can see them scoring quite a few goals - with a front line of Torres/Llorente, Mata/Silva, Fabregas/Pedro, who couldn't - but for me they are not a defensive stronghold. They are without Puyol as previously mentioned, but Pique has been in poor form and I think Iker Casillas is now a weak point; He is not as good as he was. As Chelsea have proved, and more so the Swiss in the last world cup, if plan A doesn't work, there is no plan B and then they are eminently beatable.

GERMANY

Like Spain, the Germans have a plethora of attacking options; Up top they have Bayern Munich's goal machine Mario Gomez, Arsenal's new recruit Lukas Podolski and former golden boot winner Miroslav Klose (both Poldi and Miro wil be in there native Poland for all their group games). Then they have the dynamic Mario Gotze, Toni Kroos, Real Madrid's Mesut Ozil, the prodigal Marco Reus (21) of Monchengladbach and Thomas Muller playing in behind them; All young, all burgeoning talent. Bastian Schweinsteiger and Sami Khedira provide the back up through the midfield.

Germanys key area will be in defence. Here they are more than capable; Germanys biggest, most powerful and above all, best, defender Mat Hummels will be partnered likely by either German defensive stalwart Per Mertesacker or Holger Badstuber. Versatile full back Philipp Lahm will either be deployed at left or right back (most likely left) with Borussia Dortmunds' double Bundesliga champion Marcel Schmelzer at right back, or possibly Jerome Boateng.

Germanys matchwinner could take the form of 6'5 Manuel Neuer. This guy is huge. he doesn't immediately look it, but in person he a giant. He has certainly bulked up in recent years. Neuer's penalty record is superb; It should be he. is an intimidating figure between the sticks. But he is also incredibly agile for a big goalkeeper. 

Prior to Bayern Munichs Champions League final defeat, I had Germany as pretty hot favourites. But Chelsea's shock victory has laid doubts in my mind. They will go far, however.

HOLLAND

Few can argue the Dutch merit and pedigree of Bert van Marwijk's side coming into this tournament; They have Europe's two hottest strikers in Van Persie of Arsenal and Klaas Jan Huntelaar of Schalke 04; A devilishly attacking midfield of Sneijder, Robben, Afellay and Van der Vaart.

Runners up to Spain in South Africa, The Dutch have gone from strength to strength and scored 37 and conceded only 8, notching up an 11-0 win over San Marino in qualifying from Group E. 

The impressive Marten Stekelenberg will be between the sticks for Oranje, with Gregory Van der Wiel at right back. If there is a weak link it is in the defence. The Dutch lack height. Joris Mathijsen is 6'1 and is not getting any younger and Ron Vlaar is inexperienced in tournament football. Everton's Johnny Heitinga will back the defence up with his usual steely presence.

Holland haven't won a major trophy - despite coming close on several occasions - since Marco van Basten's 1988 side. With goals aplenty in the side, could this be the team to bring glory back to the low countries? In my opinion....Yes. If they don't they will come very close.

The Dark Horses:

FRANCE

Since France's 1998 and 2000 glorious reign as World and European Champions under Jacques Santini, the French have fallen flat, in no small part to the tyrannical reign of Raymond Domenech. The squad under the tutelage of Laurent Blanc, as it is now, is young, raw and still not without problems. But make no mistake, this team is POTENTIALLY very dangerous.

The French front 3 will consist of Giroud, Benzema and Menez, all extremely capable of goals. We then have the young Yann M'Vila who Arsenal have been strongly linked with. Likely next to him will be the ever improving Cabaye. Then in the wide roles we are likely to have Franck Ribery and Lesri who will cause worry to many defences. Elsewhere, Matthieu Valbuena will likely provide an option of the bench, together with Florent Malouda. 

The French defence consists of veteran Philippe Mexes, Rami of Valencia and Laurent Koscielny. Evra and Clichy will vie for role of left back with Matthieu Debuchy at right back.

Like the Dutch France have the ability to score goals. Benzema has had a fantastic season in Spain now he has settled in at Real. Ribery will be the dynamic playmaker we expect. Mexes has now been in football for over a decade and for me he is not as secure as say a Marcel Desailly or Lillian Thuram. If Clichy is utilised at left back he will trouble defences with his pace but his defensive abilities leave a lot to be desired. The French in this tournament? Jurys out..Much will depend on the England game...

RUSSIA

Russia come into the Euros under the guidance of Dick Advocaat, who has transformed them into a very potent team. Not so much in defence, but going forward. Russia's big players are arguably all very similar, in attacking mid/striker roles.

Firstly there is Arsenal's enigma that is Andrey Arshavin. Indiferrent for the Gunners playing in a wide role - where frankly, he doesn't seem interested - he went on loan back to Zenit and has adopted a more central role and unsurprisingly has found more joy and freedom. The fact of Arsenal is irrelevant; Whenever he
plays for Russia, he looks very good.



With him will be the precocious Alan Dzagoev of CSKA. Classic Russian player; small, pacy, excellent on the ball. It will be interesting to see how he gets on. Elswehere is Yuri Zhirkov, who will get forward on numerous occasions. Strikers Pavlyuchencko and Alexander Kerzakhov blow hot and cold but can be deadly. 

Russia's hope will depend on them being not given a chance by pundits and this is where they are a real threat. They will get through the group, then anything is possible.

POLAND

The Poles haven't often been a threat in major competitions since the early 90's. This Poland side has more than a few big players. Being on home soil, this could be the perfect opportunity for Poland to show what they are made of. 

Much of the Polish threat will come from the Dortmund trio of Lukas Piszcek, Jakob Blaszocowski and the In form Robert Lewandowski. Kuba (Blasz) as he is dubbed by the Westfelanstadion faithful, is a great little playmaker. Piszcek, is a particularly attacking full back and will get forward. Lewandowski comes into the Euros on the back of being named Bundesliga player of the season, having scored 22 goals and notching 6 assists.

I saw him last season and he was poor. Behind the play and slightly clumsy. In just one season, he has become a revelation. He is a huge aerial presence and has a strong right foot. He is being linked with a big move after the tournament and an impressive showing will improve chances of that happening. I fancy him to be one of, if not the main marksman of the competition. IF Poland get out of the group

which I think, with Russia, they will....

ENGLAND

England's build-up to the tournament has been plagued by injury after injury. It is a huge shame. They will be without Wilshere, Cleverley, Cahill, Barry, Walker. Particularly in the cases of Wilshere, Cahill and Walker it is a huge shame. With those three added to Englands squad, they would be extremely well set. As it is, not a huge amount is expected of the Three Lions.

Much will depend on the opening group game of France, but I feel England still have more than enough to get them far. Roy Hodgson is adept at getting the best out of his players but from the get go it is not like England have poor players. Terry and Lescott are both extremely capable defenders and moreso have a real aerial presence in opposition penalty areas. Johnson isnt great but can attack and will attack. Ashley Cole or Leighton Baines are both excellent outlets at left back.

The midfield of Parker and Gerrard if fit, will compliment each other beautifully. It is then case of who to play on the wings. Walcott? Milner? Ox? I think Milner will start against the French and when they tire, Roy will utilise Theo to break them down on the counter attack. Chamberlain could be a revelation. He COULD be the Owen of France 98'. 

The big question is who do England play up front. Young will operate likely in a wide attacking role, behind the striker. With Rooney suspended until Ukraine, it is a perfect opportunity for Andy Carroll or Danny Welbeck to show what they made of. As I've said before, Andy Carroll will be the X Factor for England; defences will not be able to cope with his movement and his unpredictability.

England will be tough to beat. If they can get goals here and there, they could go far.

Elsewhere, if Ireland can get it together, they could make the Quarters. I don't fancy Italy AT ALL. they have demons and skeletons in there closets. But well Italy, are Italy. Ukraine, Croatia, The Czechs (No goal threat, aging keeper) Sweden (though they will go close), Portugal and Denmark will probably just make up the numbers.

But this is the Euros, and its wide open in my opinion...

PREDICTIONS:

Final 8:    SPAIN HOLLAND GERMANY RUSSIA FRANCE ENGLAND POLAND IRELAND

Final 4:    SPAIN ENGLAND HOLLAND GERMANY

Final:       HOLLAND GERMANY

HOLLAND EUROPEAN CHAMPIONS.

WE SHALL SEE...

enjoy the opening matches. Back next week....

The French Market...

afternoon roaders.

ola! even as I returned from my iberian adventures, bringing with it glorious weather. it was worth the turbulence...


I want to focus this week on the formerly derided, untapped market, of French football. Previously, if a manager had scouted and subsequently bought from lesser french clubs, he would have been lambasted. But in the past few years with the transfer market as it is, with hugely inflated fees and players wages, scouts have increasingly used the near continent as their talent pool; and what a pool it is turning out to be. Now when a french based player is touted within the media as being destined for his/her club its not a case of 'OH NO' nor 'OH YES' but more OH....OK INTERESTING. This is frankly nothing short of meteoric departure from how things were.

taking a look at the wider picture, of course there has always been talented french footballers, Cantona, etc. but only really at the height of the game.  Arsene Wenger used to be the big buyer from Le Championnat, what with his vast scouting network and oh being french and all. Pires, Vieira, Henry, Petit were all members of Arsenal's invincibles side. Now not only are there more of a choice of french players, but a plethora of belgian and african talents, all of which are beginning to catch the big boy's eye.

In the past few seasons however, the purchase of French talent at lower level has been more widespread. Generally, because where they were seen as not physical enough for the top leagues - in particular the Premier League - but now and increasingly so each year, that appears to have been a myth. Looking at the success stories of last season, Yohan Cabaye, when he moved to Newcastle from Lille, I tipped for success.   Though it took time for his burgeoning talent to come to the fore, it was always bubbling under the surface. Then his goal against Wigan in October was his moment. From then on he never looked back.

Lets look at the evidence with the new crop of french based talent.  

To name a few: (top to bottom, left to right) Eden Hazard (belgian, Lille) Marvin Martin, (french, Souchaux)   Yann M'Vila (french, Rennes) Laurent Koscielny (french, Arsenal) and Olivier Giroud (french, Montpellier)

The above four have all started to make big waves in France. 3 frenchman, 1 belgian.

Lets start with a guy who has been a sensation for the last 3 seasons at Lille. He was a guy who was earmarked by Arsene Wenger from an early age, but was priced out of any potential move to the Emirates and has now (like Mata, sigh) found a new home at Stamford Bridge, or the 'Power Station' as it's now, rather jovially being dubbed. He will not come cheap, mind. It is estimated his combined fee will reach £78m, once his wages and add ons have been taken into account.

God I hope Chelsea go bust.....i digress.....

Then we have two french midfielders; one 23, the other 24. Both in the Euro 2012 squad. M'Vila is a player who at the moment is a player who could be heading for Arsenal after the tournament. Where the other could be the cheaper, riskier alternative. Both players are excellent ball holders and adept at moving the play forward, much like Cesc Fabregas did.

The final player currently in focus is Montpellier's talismanic striker Olivier Giroud. His 25 goals and 9 assists     helped the french club win this seasons French title. Whilst comparisons could be made with Arsenal misfit Marouane Chamakh, he has better positioning and is stockier, which could be perfect for the Premier League, should he make the jump.

If France go far in the Euros, Id expect him to be up there with the top scorers.  

I will be posting a pre-euro piece next week

enjoy the weekend.