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Saturday 9 June 2012

euro 2012 preview

greetings roaders.



On the eve of the beginning of the most anticipated major footballing tournament since, well, World Cup 2010, It is time to post my thoughts, predictions and a look at the favourites, but also some of the dark horses to lift the trophy in Kiev on July 1st

The Favourites:


SPAIN


We have to begin really with the holders and many people's pick, Spain. All the household favourites will in attendance; Xavi, Iniesta, Alonso, Ramos, Casillas et al. Absent however will be the spaniards relentless captain, Carles Puyol and prolific major tournament goalscorer David Villa. 

There will be some new faces along for the ride; Athletic Bilbaos defensive mid Javi Martinez will be expected to fill the collossal boots of Puyol and if he's not he could be deployed next to Xabi Alonso in a holding role. In attack will be Chelsea's versatile winger and playmaker Juan Mata, though it is doubtful he will squeeze himself into a starting berth, such is the talent at Spain's disposal. Throw David Silva into the mix also.



Another of Bilbao's players and perhaps the biggest key to Spain's hopes is Fernando Llorente. In toutnaments past, the holders have always had a prolific marksmen (Villa, Torres). Having had a sensational season in Spain, as both scorer and provider this could be his tournament and is my pick for golden boot. More on that in a minute.

A lot of pundits have opted for Spain as champions. Not for me. Yes, I can see them scoring quite a few goals - with a front line of Torres/Llorente, Mata/Silva, Fabregas/Pedro, who couldn't - but for me they are not a defensive stronghold. They are without Puyol as previously mentioned, but Pique has been in poor form and I think Iker Casillas is now a weak point; He is not as good as he was. As Chelsea have proved, and more so the Swiss in the last world cup, if plan A doesn't work, there is no plan B and then they are eminently beatable.


GERMANY


Like Spain, the Germans have a plethora of attacking options; Up top they have Bayern Munich's goal machine Mario Gomez, Arsenal's new recruit Lukas Podolski and former golden boot winner Miroslav Klose (both Poldi and Miro wil be in there native Poland for all their group games). Then they have the dynamic Mario Gotze, Toni Kroos, Real Madrid's Mesut Ozil, the prodigal Marco Reus (21) of Monchengladbach and Thomas Muller playing in behind them; All young, all burgeoning talent. Bastian Schweinsteiger and Sami Khedira provide the back up through the midfield.


Germanys key area will be in defence. Here they are more than capable; Germanys biggest, most powerful and above all, best, defender Mat Hummels will be partnered likely by either German defensive stalwart Per Mertesacker or Holger Badstuber. Versatile full back Philipp Lahm will either be deployed at left or right back (most likely left) with Borussia Dortmunds' double Bundesliga champion Marcel Schmelzer at right back, or possibly Jerome Boateng.



Germanys matchwinner could take the form of 6'5 Manuel Neuer. This guy is huge. he doesn't immediately look it, but in person he a giant. He has certainly bulked up in recent years. Neuer's penalty record is superb; It should be he. is an intimidating figure between the sticks. But he is also incredibly agile for a big goalkeeper. 

Prior to Bayern Munichs Champions League final defeat, I had Germany as pretty hot favourites. But Chelsea's shock victory has laid doubts in my mind. They will go far, however.


HOLLAND


Few can argue the Dutch merit and pedigree of Bert van Marwijk's side coming into this tournament; They have Europe's two hottest strikers in Van Persie of Arsenal and Klaas Jan Huntelaar of Schalke 04; A devilishly attacking midfield of Sneijder, Robben, Afellay and Van der Vaart.


Runners up to Spain in South Africa, The Dutch have gone from strength to strength and scored 37 and conceded only 8, notching up an 11-0 win over San Marino in qualifying from Group E. 

The impressive Marten Stekelenberg will be between the sticks for Oranje, with Gregory Van der Wiel at right back. If there is a weak link it is in the defence. The Dutch lack height. Joris Mathijsen is 6'1 and is not getting any younger and Ron Vlaar is inexperienced in tournament football. Everton's Johnny Heitinga will back the defence up with his usual steely presence.

Holland haven't won a major trophy - despite coming close on several occasions - since Marco van Basten's 1988 side. With goals aplenty in the side, could this be the team to bring glory back to the low countries? In my opinion....Yes. If they don't they will come very close.


The Dark Horses:


FRANCE


Since France's 1998 and 2000 glorious reign as World and European Champions under Jacques Santini, the French have fallen flat, in no small part to the tyrannical reign of Raymond Domenech. The squad under the tutelage of Laurent Blanc, as it is now, is young, raw and still not without problems. But make no mistake, this team is POTENTIALLY very dangerous.



The French front 3 will consist of Giroud, Benzema and Menez, all extremely capable of goals. We then have the young Yann M'Vila who Arsenal have been strongly linked with. Likely next to him will be the ever improving Cabaye. Then in the wide roles we are likely to have Franck Ribery and Lesri who will cause worry to many defences. Elsewhere, Matthieu Valbuena will likely provide an option of the bench, together with Florent Malouda. 

The French defence consists of veteran Philippe Mexes, Rami of Valencia and Laurent Koscielny. Evra and Clichy will vie for role of left back with Matthieu Debuchy at right back.

Like the Dutch France have the ability to score goals. Benzema has had a fantastic season in Spain now he has settled in at Real. Ribery will be the dynamic playmaker we expect. Mexes has now been in football for over a decade and for me he is not as secure as say a Marcel Desailly or Lillian Thuram. If Clichy is utilised at left back he will trouble defences with his pace but his defensive abilities leave a lot to be desired. The French in this tournament? Jurys out..Much will depend on the England game...


RUSSIA


Russia come into the Euros under the guidance of Dick Advocaat, who has transformed them into a very potent team. Not so much in defence, but going forward. Russia's big players are arguably all very similar, in attacking mid/striker roles.

Firstly there is Arsenal's enigma that is Andrey Arshavin. Indiferrent for the Gunners playing in a wide role - where frankly, he doesn't seem interested - he went on loan back to Zenit and has adopted a more central role and unsurprisingly has found more joy and freedom. The fact of Arsenal is irrelevant; Whenever he
plays for Russia, he looks very good.



With him will be the precocious Alan Dzagoev of CSKA. Classic Russian player; small, pacy, excellent on the ball. It will be interesting to see how he gets on. Elswehere is Yuri Zhirkov, who will get forward on numerous occasions. Strikers Pavlyuchencko and Alexander Kerzakhov blow hot and cold but can be deadly. 

Russia's hope will depend on them being not given a chance by pundits and this is where they are a real threat. They will get through the group, then anything is possible.


POLAND


The Poles haven't often been a threat in major competitions since the early 90's. This Poland side has more than a few big players. Being on home soil, this could be the perfect opportunity for Poland to show what they are made of. 

Much of the Polish threat will come from the Dortmund trio of Lukas Piszcek, Jakob Blaszocowski and the In form Robert Lewandowski. Kuba (Blasz) as he is dubbed by the Westfelanstadion faithful, is a great little playmaker. Piszcek, is a particularly attacking full back and will get forward. Lewandowski comes into the Euros on the back of being named Bundesliga player of the season, having scored 22 goals and notching 6 assists.


I saw him last season and he was poor. Behind the play and slightly clumsy. In just one season, he has become a revelation. He is a huge aerial presence and has a strong right foot. He is being linked with a big move after the tournament and an impressive showing will improve chances of that happening. I fancy him to be one of, if not the main marksman of the competition. IF Poland get out of the group

which I think, with Russia, they will....


ENGLAND


England's build-up to the tournament has been plagued by injury after injury. It is a huge shame. They will be without Wilshere, Cleverley, Cahill, Barry, Walker. Particularly in the cases of Wilshere, Cahill and Walker it is a huge shame. With those three added to Englands squad, they would be extremely well set. As it is, not a huge amount is expected of the Three Lions.

Much will depend on the opening group game of France, but I feel England still have more than enough to get them far. Roy Hodgson is adept at getting the best out of his players but from the get go it is not like England have poor players. Terry and Lescott are both extremely capable defenders and moreso have a real aerial presence in opposition penalty areas. Johnson isnt great but can attack and will attack. Ashley Cole or Leighton Baines are both excellent outlets at left back.


The midfield of Parker and Gerrard if fit, will compliment each other beautifully. It is then case of who to play on the wings. Walcott? Milner? Ox? I think Milner will start against the French and when they tire, Roy will utilise Theo to break them down on the counter attack. Chamberlain could be a revelation. He COULD be the Owen of France 98'. 

The big question is who do England play up front. Young will operate likely in a wide attacking role, behind the striker. With Rooney suspended until Ukraine, it is a perfect opportunity for Andy Carroll or Danny Welbeck to show what they made of. As I've said before, Andy Carroll will be the X Factor for England; defences will not be able to cope with his movement and his unpredictability.

England will be tough to beat. If they can get goals here and there, they could go far.


Elsewhere, if Ireland can get it together, they could make the Quarters. I don't fancy Italy AT ALL. they have demons and skeletons in there closets. But well Italy, are Italy. Ukraine, Croatia, The Czechs (No goal threat, aging keeper) Sweden (though they will go close), Portugal and Denmark will probably just make up the numbers.

But this is the Euros, and its wide open in my opinion...




PREDICTIONS:


Final 8:    SPAIN HOLLAND GERMANY RUSSIA FRANCE ENGLAND POLAND IRELAND

Final 4:    SPAIN ENGLAND HOLLAND GERMANY

Final:       HOLLAND GERMANY


HOLLAND EUROPEAN CHAMPIONS.


WE SHALL SEE...

enjoy the opening matches. Back next week....



Friday 1 June 2012

The French Market...

afternoon roaders.

ola! even as I returned from my iberian adventures, bringing with it glorious weather. it was worth the turbulence...


I want to focus this week on the formerly derided, untapped market, of French football. Previously, if a manager had scouted and subsequently bought from lesser french clubs, he would have been lambasted. But in the past few years with the transfer market as it is, with hugely inflated fees and players wages, scouts have increasingly used the near continent as their talent pool; and what a pool it is turning out to be. Now when a french based player is touted within the media as being destined for his/her club its not a case of 'OH NO' nor 'OH YES' but more OH....OK INTERESTING. This is frankly nothing short of meteoric departure from how things were.

taking a look at the wider picture, of course there has always been talented french footballers, Cantona, etc. but only really at the height of the game.  Arsene Wenger used to be the big buyer from Le Championnat, what with his vast scouting network and oh being french and all. Pires, Vieira, Henry, Petit were all members of Arsenal's invincibles side. Now not only are there more of a choice of french players, but a plethora of belgian and african talents, all of which are beginning to catch the big boy's eye.

In the past few seasons however, the purchase of French talent at lower level has been more widespread. Generally, because where they were seen as not physical enough for the top leagues - in particular the Premier League - but now and increasingly so each year, that appears to have been a myth. Looking at the success stories of last season, Yohan Cabaye, when he moved to Newcastle from Lille, I tipped for success.   Though it took time for his burgeoning talent to come to the fore, it was always bubbling under the surface. Then his goal against Wigan in October was his moment. From then on he never looked back.

Lets look at the evidence with the new crop of french based talent.  









To name a few: (top to bottom, left to right) Eden Hazard (belgian, Lille) Marvin Martin, (french, Souchaux)   Yann M'Vila (french, Rennes) Laurent Koscielny (french, Arsenal) and Olivier Giroud (french, Montpellier)

The above four have all started to make big waves in France. 3 frenchman, 1 belgian.

Lets start with a guy who has been a sensation for the last 3 seasons at Lille. He was a guy who was earmarked by Arsene Wenger from an early age, but was priced out of any potential move to the Emirates and has now (like Mata, sigh) found a new home at Stamford Bridge, or the 'Power Station' as it's now, rather jovially being dubbed. He will not come cheap, mind. It is estimated his combined fee will reach £78m, once his wages and add ons have been taken into account.

God I hope Chelsea go bust.....i digress.....


Then we have two french midfielders; one 23, the other 24. Both in the Euro 2012 squad. M'Vila is a player who at the moment is a player who could be heading for Arsenal after the tournament. Where the other could be the cheaper, riskier alternative. Both players are excellent ball holders and adept at moving the play forward, much like Cesc Fabregas did.



The final player currently in focus is Montpellier's talismanic striker Olivier Giroud. His 25 goals and 9 assists     helped the french club win this seasons French title. Whilst comparisons could be made with Arsenal misfit Marouane Chamakh, he has better positioning and is stockier, which could be perfect for the Premier League, should he make the jump.

If France go far in the Euros, Id expect him to be up there with the top scorers.  

I will be posting a pre-euro piece next week


enjoy the weekend.